Hindsight Bias.docx

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Agricultural Engineering
A EN 459
Brandon Whitehart

Hindsight Bias – The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. When you receive an A on a test and tell a friend that you knew you passed when a couple days ago you said you weren’t sure. Critical thinking – Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions, Rather, it examines assumptions, discerns hidden value, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions. When someone reads the newspaper and asks themselves where these facts came from and how true they are, if they only wrote the parts that people wanted to read. Theory – An explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events. Theory that overconfidence causes less though into other peoples’ ideas/opinions. Applied Research - Clear, practical applications. You can USE it. Used to find solutions to everyday problems, cure illnesses, develop technology, etc. Basic Research - Explores questions that you may be curious about, but not intended to be immediately used. Used to increase scientific knowledge base. Purely theoretical with the intent of increasing or understanding of certain phenomena or behavior but does not seek out to solve or treat these problems. Hypothesis – A testable prediction, often implied by a theory. Hypothesis that overconfidence makes people ignore or take no consideration on what others say. Operational Definition – A statement of the procedures (operations) used to define research variables. For example, human intelligence may be operationally defined as what an intelligence test measures. Studying can be defined as how to memorize pieces of information. Replication – Repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances. Testing a theory with the same procedures but with a group of people with different ethnic backgrounds from the first group. Case Study – An observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles. One individual was followed around for complete observation on how school violence affected his actions. Survey Method – Technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of people, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of them. Surveying a large group of people on their views of tv affecting peoples way of thinking and their actions. False Consensus Effect – The tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs and behaviors. Athletic people would think that more people are athletic than non athletes. Population – All the cases in a group, from which samples may be drawn for a study. (except for national studies, this does not refer to a countries whole population.) The population of your school. Random Sample/Selection – A sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion. Looking at a list of students and randomly choosing every 6 person on it. Stratified Sample - Stratified Random Sampling is a sampling method (a way of gathering participants for a study) used when the population is composed of several subgroups that may differ in the behavior or attribute that you are studying. For example, you want to find out whether workers who did a lot of overtime work had higher performance scores. If you had existing data suggesting that workers who had children were less likely to work overtime than those who did not have children, you would divide the employee population into two groups: parents and non-parents. You would then randomly select an equal number of people from each subgroup. Representative sample - When conducting a study, a researcher selects a relatively small group of participants (a sample) from an entire population of all possible participants (for example, selecting college students at a couple of colleges from all college students in the world). Ideally, the researcher would have a Representative Sample, which is when your participants closely match the characteristics of the population, which helps you generalize your results from your small group of people to large groups of people. For example, imagine you are at the supermarket picking out grapes. There are red, green, small, large, and globe grapes. In a representative sample you would have an equivalent number of each type of grape. You could then taste them all and make generalizations about
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