PL SC 014 02/17/2014
Lecture 12: Alliances, Part 1
What are alliances?
Alliances are “institutions that help their members cooperate militarily in the event of war.”
The primary goal of an alliance is to prevent war. A secondary goal is to win war in the event the primary
goal is not achieved.
Because of credibility concerns, it is important to treat alliances as institutions, not actors.
Data on Alliances
COW Definition: There must be a formal, ratified treaty between two or more system members about war
Defense Pacts: B promises to aid C if there is a war.
Neutrality/Nonaggression Pacts: B promises to remain neutral if C is attacked/or promises not to attack C
Entente: B promises to consult w/C if there is a war
Why enter into an alliance?
Alliances are the basic source of external power maximization—balance of power theory
States have a stake in the outcome of other countries’ disputes.
Symmetric and asymmetric alliances
Do Alliances promote peace?
They can indicate what the retaliatory coalition would be, and thereby deter war.
Moderate allies can constrain their more aggressive partners.
They can mitigate concerns about power shifts if they are alliances of many members.
A firmer alliance in 1939 might have deterred Hitler
Alliances generate counter alliances triggering security dilemmas.
Alliances expand wars by entangling allies that would have remained at peace.
WWI was strongly influenced by existing alliance arrangements. 02/17/2014
Define peacekeeping (from slides)
Types of Peacekeeping Missions
Monitoring or Observer Mission:
Monitor a truce/help negotiate a peace treaty.
Normally worried about information
Deployment of military units, usually to establish a buffer zone and disarm combatants
Usually lightly armed
Implement a comprehensive negotiated settlement involving reconstruction of society, economy, and
Usually multiple parts: create new police force, structured government, rebuild…etc.
Military enforcement sanctioned by UN, designed to impose public order by force with or w/o consent of
Traditionally do not have the consent of both sides
Korean War 1950/53 – Peace enforcement
Iraq 1990/1991 – Peace enforcement
Rwanda 1993/1994 – Monitoring mission
Bosnia 1992/1995; 1995/2004 – Peace enforcement, and then peacekeeping 02/17/2014
Quiet Successes: El Salvador, Mozambique, Liberia, Sierra Leone, East Timor, Cambodia, latter Bosnia
A History of Peacekeeping
During the Cold War (19451989)
18 Peacekeeping Missions (8 for civil wars)
Africa: 3, Asia: 4, Europe: 1, Latin America: 2, Middle East: 8
After the Cold War (1990on)
44 Peacekeeping Missions (33 for civil wars)
Most in Africa, Second most is Asia
Longest: UN Truce Supervision Org (1948on)
Shortest: UN Observer Group in Lebanon (1958)
Does Peacekeeping Help Keep Peace?
Is it worth it? 63 missions, $54 billion, About 2600 dead
Finish this section on slides
Which Peacekeeping Missions Succeed?
Ethnic wars and very long wars don’t respond to peacekeeping well
UN Peacekeepers are associated with better peacekeeping 02/17/2014
Private Info and Civil War Bargaining
Rebels and government suffer from the same difficulti 02/17/2014
Definitions of Terrorisms
No one widelyaccepted definition of terrorism
The Founding Fathers in the eyes of the British were “terrorists”
Some people see terrorists as freedom fighters, obviously we see them as terrorists
US government definition:
“premeditated, politically motivated violence against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or
clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience”
“The use or threatened use of violence against noncombatant targets by individuals or nonstate groups for
political ends” (p. 242)
If terrorists attack soldiers, it’s not terrorism
They’re doing this to get attention, to get noticed. They attack anywhere in the public eye
Some Basic Facts About Terrorism
Most frequent sites:
Middle East, Europe, Latin America, Africa, South Asia
Most frequent terrorists:
Separatists (people who want to remove their part of the country from their host country, they want to make
it so terrible for the country that they say “just go”), Communists, Religious Groups
Most frequent targets:
Diplomatic facilities, businesses
188 attacks (19802001), almost always in campaigns, most frequent in Sri Lanka, Israel
more recently: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq 02/17/2014
Average terrorist incident kills 1.5 people
Average suicide terrorist incident kills 13
Hijacking: taking hostages, don’t have to necessarily kill people
If you want to kill people, you need to die yourself or be willing to kill some of your own people.
Broad Categories of Causes of Terrorism
Causes of terrorism lie in the political, cultural, social, or economic structures of societies
Causes of terrorism lie in the mental disturbances of terrorists.
Terrorists are wouldbe political elites who have a comparative advantage in violence and terror
Bargaining and Terrorism
If the scholarly consensus is that terrorists are rational and:
States know terrorists can inf