Department

EconomicsCourse Code

ECON 15AProfessor

Paul ShireyStudy Guide

MidtermThis

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TEST THREE

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS, ECON 15A

NOVEMBER 6, 2015

1. Five cards are dealt, what is the probability that the fourth one is a heart, given that the first three are aces?

2. Three cards are picked: What is the probability of not getting any hearts?

3. There is a twenty-sided die (numbered 1-20). What is the probability that the die comes up even or prime? [The

number 1 is not considered prime.]

Use for questions 4-7. Arielle is taking a road trip this summer. There’s a 40% chance she’ll travel to New Mexico and a 70 %

chance she’ll travel to Wyoming. The probability that she’ll go to Wyoming if she goes to New Mexico is 50%.

4. What is the probability that Arielle will go to either Wyoming or New Mexico?

5. What is the probability that Arielle will go to neither Wyoming nor New Mexico?

6. What is the probability of Arielle going to New Mexico, given she doesn’t go to Wyoming

7. Are going to New Mexico and going to Wyoming independent events? Please explain how you know.

8. Explain why mutually exclusive events are not independent.

9. There is a room of 10 people. What is the probability that at least one of them was born on a Wednesday?

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