A&O SCI 1 Study Guide - Final Guide: Carbon Sequestration, Ocean Acidification, Cryosphere
8 Dec 2016
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Document Summary
~1c increase in annual mean global mean surface temperature over past century. Geographically warming occurs nearly everywhere but is especially pronounced over land areas. Most of greenland and the west antarctic peninsula show substantial mass loss. This ice loss contributes to iceberg formation and transport of freshwater to the ocean, rising the sea level. Ensemble mean from ipcc reproduces observed warming when anthropogenic radiative forcings are included. Without radiative forcings, models fail to predict the observed warming. Under the ipcc guideline, modeling groups around the world run their models with the same radiative forcing scenarios. The strongest scenario rcp8. 5, or business as usual ; the weakest rcp2. 6, or. Figures show ensemble mean as line and uncertainty as shading. Rcp8. 5 predicts on " about 4c, rcp2. 6 only 1c by 2100. Note the final warming in rcp2. 6 even if emissions are zero: this illustrates the principle of warming commitment due to the inertia of the climate and carbon systems.
