PS125 Final Rhodes notes.docx

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Political Science
Barry O' Neill

Twilight of the Bombs – Richard Rhodes PART ONE Chapter 1: Bush‟s Frankenstein (Bush Sr) (failed policy towards Iraq: appeasement w/ govt, banks and private sector) · US and Israel aware that Iraq is pursuing a program of nuclear development · Israel strikes part of an Iraqi reactor o Saddam (Atomic energy commission) and all nuclear activity a secret o Tested a “dirty bomb” to use against Iranian troops and minimal effects · 1988- make an actual nuclear arsenal · Trying to buy components from suppliers and US rejects permits · Using Euromac (originally vacuum company but dealt with illegal arms) o US set up a sting to see who and where everything is dealt · Buying a lot of uranium w/o the facilities · Program modeled on Manhattan project · Bush wants vigilance against Nuke proliferation by getting close with Iraq o Oil reserves o embrace Saddam with a cocoon of moderation o loans to Iraq · Criticism! – correlation: oil imports and sale of dual-use equipment o BNL raid and $4 billion in unreported loans to Iraq · Invasion of Kuwait building Chapter 2: Cutting Saddam‟s sinews (leave saddam in authority, shrink military, wall off sections, eliminate WMD) · Iraq Invades and Bush pissed · 8 month crash program to get the atomic bomb (make missile capable of reaching Tel Aviv) o implosion using HMX (high melting explosive) · AQ Khan supplies from Pakistan · Conflict over whether to go to war or not · Desert Storm – greater cause about WMD‟s o Air-war o Limited war o Iraq burned oil fields o Revolutionary tech used--> new non-nuclear deterrence Chapter 3: True Courage · Iraq forfeited its ability to resist -- now lets track down and eliminate WMD · IAEA is supposed to do it but the US doesn’t think it is competent · New hybrid organization and--UN Special Commission (UNSCOM)--> oversee destruction of WMD o IAEA given some nuclear responsibilities o To actually get something done….you had to go outside the book (Bush mentality) o Wanted very intrusive investigations o Difficulties with cooperation, getting people, or equipment · IAEA (civil servants) VS UNSCOM (Rambo) · Iraq tried to disclose as little as possible · At facilities, inspectors are stunned by the size and magnitude o Find traces of HEU but cant find the actual stuff -- Iraqis said it was taken to a field o 100’s of barrels of yellowcake o a lot looks like new construction · Satellites show that Iraqi’s were transporting equipment out and burying it o Large electromagnets disks for a calutron o Making a electromagnetic isotope separation Chapter 4: The Calutron Trail · Inspectors are now trying to find and locate the disks · Iraqi‟s keep playing dumb or blocking roads · “automobile maintenance facility” --huge cranes… turns out to be the magnet test stand for the EMIS program · Got a tip to go to Fallujah, Rambo style zero-notice inspection o Were not let in but got a vantage point of the disks on trucks o Caught Iraqi’s in a huge lie = public support · Bush threatens…Saddam finally gives full disclosure · Iraq destroys much of its WMD‟s w/o recording it -- compromised Iraq’s future security · Jaffar (lead Iraqi scientist) reveals Saddam‟s reasons to build o To deter but it became pointless when the US and UK got involved · Discover enrichment place – Tarimiya · STILL missing clear statement from Iraqi‟s that they had a nuke program o Intel on 2 documented storage facilities (design center, admin facility Petrochemical-3 center) o Covert raid -- needed private security o First find a report on the progress of nuke program-- had to sneak it out o Parking lot tour --> Iraq wont let the inspectors leave w/o giving back the docs § So they just camp out at their bus § Worldwide attention = international pressure § Satellite telephone is key PART TWO Chapter 5- the Little Suitcase a. 1991 David Kay, Bob Gallucci, and fellow IAEA/UNSCOM inspectors were in Iraq, exposing nuclear weapons program, Russia was going through a crisis (famine) i. Stuck in between retreat and transformation, Gorbachev went on vacation with the “little suitcase” or (Football). b. Gorbachev’s men planning a coup, to save the nation from famine and gain power . Coup heading by KGB leader, involved majority of Gorbachev’s staff i. Communication with the “little suitcase” get cut, signaling the start of the coup 1. National sovereignty invested in nuclear arsenal, sovereignty temporarily adrift with disrupted communications c. Coup is broken (not explicit how in reading) . Gorbachev, while back to the Kremlin after returning from captivity, “I have come back from Foros to another country, and I myself am a different man now.” 2. Sam Nunn, and the aftermath of the coup, August 1991 . Nunn, Democratic Senator from Georgia and chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, flies to Russia post-coup to meet the “new players” who were going to be in charge of Russia . Coup, results in the break-up of the Soviet Union 1. Nunn, through interactions with Russian friends, worries about implications of coup for security of nuclear arsenal 2. Carrying out the coup, changed the electronic keys for the “suitcases” over to whoever was declared commander in chief. 3. Nunn was able to talk with Pres. Gorbachev, when he brought up nuclear security; he was dismissed by the president. a. Soviet nuclear arsenal was never at risk during coup, due to its “ingenious” design. - Bruce Blair, American command and control expert i. World-wide concern for nuclear security was misinformed . Mobile ICBM’s (SS-25s) were garrisoned i. Reduced level of combat readiness ii. Significant source of reassurance ii. Results: Blair concludes, “no system of safeguards can reliably guard against misbehavior at the apex of government. There is no answer to the question, „Who guards the guards?‟” iii. Nunn is worried that the breakup of the Soviet Union will generate many states with weak control of their nuclear weapon inheritance Chapter 6: Many Little Monsters a. Nunn’s involvement . Went to Georgia Tech, Emory University for Graduate Law i. At 24, went on an Air Force sponsored trip of NATO installations, when Cuban Missile Crisis broke out 1. Made him realize the importance of warning time and its absence, and the terrible stress of
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