POLS1005 Chapter Notes - Chapter 6: World Politics, Ideal Point, September 11 Attacks
[Week 6]
World Politics – Frieden Lake Schultz
Violence by Nonstate Actors: Civil War and Terrorism
Why does war occur within states?
• Civil war – a war in which the main participants are within the same state, such as the
government and a rebel group
• Sometimes civil war can occur when there isn’t a functioning central government so conflicts a
result of several groups trying to assume this role – e.g. Somalia
• Scholars conventionally require a conflict to cause at least 1000 battle-related deaths to qualify
as a civil war – there needs to be deaths from both sides
Why Civil War is studied in International Relations:
• Foreign states with an interest in the victory of either side often give resources (e.g. money,
arms) to their preferred side
• Civil wars can have spillover effects beyond their borders – e.g. refugee flows
Why rebel?
• The literature on civil wars generally classifies these interest conflicts as arising from two
different sources:
1. Grievances – can arise when the policies of the government discriminate against members
of a particular group – e.g. by repressing their language or culture, denying government
services (education, health care, etc.
- Can lead to vast inequalities in wealth and quality of life among groups
2. Greed – refers to a group’s desire to control more of the country’s economic resources –
e.g. having a greater share of the profits from natural resource extraction, or privileged
access to jobs and government largesse
• Territorial conflict takes the form of separatism or irredentism and both arise when a rebel
group seeks to carve out a piece of the state’s territory
• Separatist – an actor that seeks to create an independent state on territory carved from an
existing state
- Generally arises when a group is concentrated in a particular region of the country
has grievances with the central government and expects to fare better under its own
governance
- Separatist conflicts gave rise to East Timor – separated from Indonesia in 2002
• Irredentist – an actor that seeks to detach a region from one country and attach it to another,
usually because of shared ethnic or religious ties
- Usually arises when people of one state share ethnic or religious ties with the people
in the neighbouring state and therefore expect that their interests will be better served
under its governance
- Great Britain (20th Century) faced a decades-long conflict with Catholics in Northern
Ireland who wanted to join that region with the rest of Ireland, which is majority
Catholic
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• If leaving is impractical, a group motivated by grievances or greed may threaten civil war in
order to change the policies pursued by the central government
• Dissatisfied groups might seek to seize control of the central government and establish a new
regime – e.g. the civil war in Afghanistan is driven by the desire of those loyal to the former
Taliban regime to reclaim power from the U.S.-installed government
• Ethnic or religious differences alone do not cause the interest conflicts that underlie civil wars –
but when these differences give rise to discriminatory economic and social policies, inequality,
political exclusion, and/or intolerance that demands for territory, policy change or regime
chance can arise
When does dissatisfaction lead to armed opposition?
• Three set of factors help explain the emergence of organized, armed opposition groups:
1. Group-Level Explanations
• In some cases, the ability of groups to organize is aided by the nature of the interests for which
they are fighting
• Individuals may be motivated by strong religious or ideological beliefs that lead them to see
contributing to the cause as beneficial in its own right
• Individuals from the same ethnic or religious group may have higher levels of trust or
collective solidarity and feel a stronger social disincentive to free ride when dealing with one
another
• When people trust their ethnic or religious kin more than others, elites can strategically
highlight and manipulate group differences in order to build a base of support
• Some traditional societies may be organized into tribes, tribes generally have their own systems
of formal or informal governance, which facilitates collective action
• In the absence of strong ethnic ties or ideological motivations, groups can encourage
participation by individuals through compensating supporters materially – e.g. Rebel groups
operating in areas of Africa with easy access to diamonds
• Kidnapping and recruitment is used by rebel groups to gain fighters – e.g. April 2014 300
Nigerian schoolgirls were kidnapped and forced to marry members of the rebel group Boko
Haram
2. Country-Level Factors
• Three features of a country in particular can contribute to the risk that armed opposition will
emerge:
1. Country’s political institutions or regime type
- The incentive to threaten or use violence depends in part of whether the normal political
process allows peaceful methods for redressing grievances
- As fighting is costly, it makes sense to seek policy change or influence through existing
political channels, if possible
- The ability of a rebel group to form depends on how easily the government can prevent,
deter, or eliminate armed opposition
- Therefor, although democratic countries should have a lower risk of experiencing civil
wars due to elections, authoritarian governments are more likely to prevent rebel groups
due to their willingness to use violence against their own citizens, and absence of civil
liberties
2. Country’s wealth
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- The most consistent finding is that poorer countries are more likely to experience civil
wars
- An interpretation that people in poor states have greater reason to be unhappy and are
desperate – e.g. recruited as fighters in order to increase finances
- There is an interpretation that the chance of civil war depends on the government’s
capacity to prevent and defeat rebellions – richer states tend to have better police and
military forces as well as a better ability to project their authority throughout the state
3. Those that make it easier or harder for governments to find and defeat rebels
- Civil wars are more likely in populous states, since rebels can more easily recruit from
and hide in large populations as well as mountainous and jungle-like terrain – e.g. U.S.
and Afghan soldiers found it harder to find Taliban rebels on mountains
3. International Factors
1. Rebel groups may be able to obtain resources if there are foreign states that have an interest
in their cause
- Foreign states may intervene directly by sending their forces across the border to assist
one side or the other- sympathetic states may give arms, money or training to rebel
groups
- Rebels may also operate from bases in neighbouring countries, allowing them to
organize and train in sanctuaries that are hard for the government to reach
- Foreign governments may share the interests of the rebel group – During the civil war in
the former Yugoslavia, Serbia gave aid to ethnic Serbs living in Bosnia and Croatia who
wanted to carve out a “Greater Serbia” from these lands
- By giving support to groups with aligned interests, a foreign state can force the
government to make greater concessions, or it can improve the chances that the rebels
will replace the government altogether and implement policies closer to the foreign
state’s ideal point
2. Outsiders may support rebels not because they have other interest conflicts with the
government
- In these cases, support for rebels can be a relatively low cost way for one state to impose
costs on another in the hopes of either gaining concessions, to tie down some of the
opponent’s resources at home, or to hasten the ouster of a hostel government
• Proxy wars - conflicts in which two opposing states “fight” by supporting opposite sides
in war, such as the government and rebels in a third state
Civil War as a Bargaining Failure
The potential for civil violence arises when:
1) There are groups of people within the country motivated by greed or grievances that put
their interests in conflict with those of the government
2) Those people cannot pursue their grievances through regular political institutions
3) Those people can, owing to their own resources, foreign support, and/or the state’s
weakness, overcome the collective action problem to recruit enough fighters and purchase
enough weaponry to pose a threat
• Similar to interstate conflicts, civil conflicts can (in theory), be resolved through
compromises that would allow the actors to avoid costs
• A territorial dispute could lead to a negotiated secession, or more likely, a grant of
autonomy that would give the rebel group many of the benefits of self-rule in its region
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Document Summary
As a civil war there needs to be deaths from both sides. Violence by nonstate actors: civil war and terrorism. Generally arises when a group is concentrated in a particular region of the country has grievances with the central government and expects to fare better under its own governance. Separatist conflicts gave rise to east timor separated from indonesia in 2002. Irredentist an actor that seeks to detach a region from one country and attach it to another, usually because of shared ethnic or religious ties. Usually arises when people of one state share ethnic or religious ties with the people in the neighbouring state and therefore expect that their interests will be better served under its governance. Great britain (20th century) faced a decades-long conflict with catholics in northern. Ireland who wanted to join that region with the rest of ireland, which is majority.
