BUSI 2301 Chapter Notes - Chapter 3: Linear Regression, Data Analysis, Regression Analysis
5 Mar 2014
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Document Summary
A forecast is a statement about the future. Assumes underlying system of the past will continue to exist in the future. Groups of items more accurate than individuals. Decrease as the time pd increases; flexible businesses benefit more from accurate short term forecasts: elements of a good forecast. Easy to understand and use: steps in forecasting process. Judgemental uses subjective inputs (historical but not precise numbers) Quantitative uses eqns: time series historical data assuing future will be the same, associative models uses casual (explanatory) variables to predict future, judgemental forecasts. Executive opinions: used for lt planning and new product development. Sales force composite: sales staff has direct contact with customers. Historical analogies: use the demand for cranberry apple drink to forecast the demand for cranberry grape drink. Expert opinions (delphi): experts complete questionnaires, usually used in technology: time series. Can serve as a standard for comparison. Demand = trend x seasonality: associative models.
