PSYC 1115 Chapter : psych 1115 notes Ch 1.docx

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Hindsight bias: the tendency to believe after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it (also called i-knew-it-all-along) Just asking people how and why they felt or acted as they did can sometimes be misleading-not because common sense is usually wrong, but because common sense more easily describe what has happened than what will happen. Niels bohr: prediction is very difficult especially about the future . Good ideas are like good inventions; once created they seem obvious (why did it take so long for someone to invent suitcases on wheels and post-it notes?) We humans tend to think we know more than we do. We tend to be more confident than correct, especially when we are asked how sure we are of answers to factual questions (is boston north or south of paris) This is also the case when it comes to three anagrams, which richard goranson (1978) asked people to unscramble:

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