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Political Science
POLI 211
Fillippo Sabetti

Rising power, anxious state - One of the world’s largest economies but under threat from the resistance to further re- form. - Legitimacy of authoritarianism socialism enables China “to make decisions efficiently, organize effectively and concentrate resources to accomplish large undertakings.” - Intense domestic security, police assault on civil society, activists, bloggers, artists. Vulnerable system. -In March 2013, a younger generation will take over the Politburo. (Incidents?) The president (Hu Jintao) and Mr. Wen will step down. -Struggle to monitor China’s economy through consumption rather than exports and in- vestment. Dismantlement of many state-owned enterprises since 90s. Banks still in the government’s hands. Their lending to overcome the financial crisis will lead to a big debt in China. -Will China’s embrace to globalization lead to greater political freedoms? “The China Fantasy: Why Capitalism Will Not Bring Democracy To China”- James Mann 2007. It suggests that China’s “current system of modernized, business-supported re- pression could well be vastly more established and entrenched.” The princelings are coming “Next year’s changes in the leadership will bring on a new generation of privileged politi- cal heirs” -During Japanese invasion, Chongqing was the home of the government before Mao Zedong moved it. Today, it has become a strong hold of “charismatic politics”. Candidate for the Politburo from the region: Bo Xilai (the region’s party chief)--> Internal Security Chief? Mr Bo and Mr Xi belong to an emerging political force named taizidang or “party of princelings”-> the offspring of senior officials. (glamorous, self-confident) The new left -Bo is a strong leftist. Die hard Maoist. (ex: encourages the singing of “red songs”) “The Chongqing Model” (a sort of manifesto for Bo) -Bo’s campaign shows no sign of regard for legal process and independence of the judi- cial system. Rising power, anxious state The Chongqing model values a bigger role for the state in the economy. Beware the middle-income trap “China’s roaring growth cannot last indefinitely” -In 2007, the PM described China’s economy as “unstable, unbalanced,unco-ordinated and unsustainable”. -The IMF predicts that by 2016, China will become the world’s largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity. -Economy will slow down in the coming years after a yearly growth of 10% these past years. (exports will decrease due to the slow down of the Western economies and the returns of investment assets will decrease.) Solution: boost consumption. -Main worry for Chinese officials is an
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