Rising power, anxious state
- One of the world’s largest economies but under threat from the resistance to further re-
form.
- Legitimacy of authoritarianism socialism enables China “to make decisions efficiently,
organize effectively and concentrate resources to accomplish large undertakings.”
- Intense domestic security, police assault on civil society, activists, bloggers, artists.
Vulnerable system.
-In March 2013, a younger generation will take over the Politburo. (Incidents?)
The president (Hu Jintao) and Mr. Wen will step down.
-Struggle to monitor China’s economy through consumption rather than exports and in-
vestment.
Dismantlement of many state-owned enterprises since 90s.
Banks still in the government’s hands. Their lending to overcome the financial crisis will
lead to a big debt in China.
-Will China’s embrace to globalization lead to greater political freedoms?
“The China Fantasy: Why Capitalism Will Not Bring Democracy To China”- James Mann
2007. It suggests that China’s “current system of modernized, business-supported re-
pression could well be vastly more established and entrenched.”
The princelings are coming
“Next year’s changes in the leadership will bring on a new generation of privileged politi-
cal heirs”
-During Japanese invasion, Chongqing was the home of the government before Mao
Zedong moved it.
Today, it has become a strong hold of “charismatic politics”.
Candidate for the Politburo from the region: Bo Xilai (the region’s party chief)--> Internal
Security Chief?
Mr Bo and Mr Xi belong to an emerging political force named taizidang or “party of
princelings”-> the offspring of senior officials. (glamorous, self-confident)
The new left
-Bo is a strong leftist. Die hard Maoist. (ex: encourages the singing of “red songs”)
“The Chongqing Model” (a sort of manifesto for Bo)
-Bo’s campaign shows no sign of regard for legal process and independence of the judi-
cial system. Rising power, anxious state
The Chongqing model values a bigger role for the state in the economy.
Beware the middle-income trap
“China’s roaring growth cannot last indefinitely”
-In 2007, the PM described China’s economy as “unstable, unbalanced,unco-ordinated
and unsustainable”.
-The IMF predicts that by 2016, China will become the world’s largest economy in terms
of purchasing power parity.
-Economy will slow down in the coming years after a yearly growth of 10% these past
years. (exports will decrease due to the slow down of the Western economies and the
returns of investment assets will decrease.)
Solution: boost consumption.
-Main worry for Chinese officials is an
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