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POLI 211 Economist - Rising Power, Anxious State Summary Notes

5 Pages

Political Science
Course Code
POLI 211
Fillippo Sabetti

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Mostly expository does argue that Chinas current economic and political model is unsustainableIntrorising power of China Shengshi age of prosperityGDP for 6 tril second to US 15 trilPopulation 134 bil increasing urbanizationrich East vs poor westGDP per person still rising steadily lowermiddle income country but behind other developing nations such as BrazilGovernment debt held steady at 80 of GDP for past decadesuspicions and raised alarms from the West similar to rise of Japan in the thlatter half of the 20 centhowever leadership is more cautious never opening proclaiming Shengshinervous over leadership transitionLeadershipNew leaders after transition Hu JintaoXi Jinping Wen JiabbaoLi Keqiang thtaizidangParty of Princelings 5 generation of Chinese leadership offspring of previous senior officials Princelings used to be viewed with suspicion by the third generation but fourth generation believed they could best uphold party traditions Liberals worry that certain Princelings such as Bo Xilai of Chongqing province have little regard for the rule of law and will lead China away from democratic reforms Economic Growthafter years of rapid growth Chinese economy is likely to slow down exports will be constrained by depressed Western markets and investments in fixed assets will produce diminishing returnshowever Chinas budget deficit is only a modest 25 of GDP and it holds 3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves economic slowdown will be less pronounced if government succeeds in boosting consumption as new growth engine real wages have been rising which will aid in this endeavour IMF projects China will become worlds largest economy on purchasingpowerparity basis in 2016rising inflation may be somewhat worrisome 55 in May 2011 but nowhere near catastrophic levels furthermore the rising inflation means the yuan is appreciating against the dollar by more than 10 a year critics of Chinese model China may be heading towards middleincome
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