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"Is the Jordanian Monarchy in Danger?" (Dr. Asher Susser).pdf

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McGill University
Political Science
POLI 340
Rex Brynen

Introduction King Abdullah since 1999 situation in Jordan is tenuous, remains manageable Arab Spring emboldened opp by eroding the deterrent effect of the notorious fear of government almost weekly demonstrations for 2 years, led by Muslim Brethren demand pol. reform decry pervasive corruption three constants attributed to extraordinary stability and longevity of monarchy 1. Jordan is not a one-man show loyal and cohesive East Banker Jordinian political elite Jordan is their political patrimony, they will die to support it 2. monarchy as well as EB elite buttressed by loyal and professional security force 3. kingdom's geopolitical centrality supported by external allies who need it stable S. Arabia specifically could not stand fall of a neighbouring monarchy The Monarch's Trade Union deep-rootedness of the dynastic principle succession has been an accepted, long-established practice Hashemite dynastic legitimacy BUT do not guarantee immunity monarchies overthrown in ME 50s and 60s mil. regimes that replaced them sucked monarchs never promised people messianic deliverance, only 'securing a better life for all Jordanians' people feel blessed that it is stable eager to preserve if they want to avoid catastrophes suffered by their fellow Arabs It's the Economy, Stupid economic discontent complaints of corruption real problems are structural food and fuel prices UP riots in Jordan decision to slash subsidies for various oil derivatives in exchange for IMF aid to economy prices on products UP essential keep country running people pissed riots and demonstrations economic woes have serious political ramifications unwritten social contract b/w monarchy and EB elite monarchy gets their loyalty EB get jobs and salaries and gov't largesse BUT EB split since 1970 war b.w Jordanian forces and PLO original EB and their less trusted compatriots of Palestinian extraction Palestinians systematically removed from positions of influence Palest
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