POLI 243 Chapter : CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS Graham Allison

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Allison states three prepositions before explaining the models. Analysts think about problems of foreign and military policy in terms of largely implicit conceptual models that have significant consequences for the content of their thought. Explanations produced by certain analysts have regularities, which reflect an analysts assumptions. Most analysts explain (and predict) the behavior of national governments in terms of various forms of one basic conceptual model, here entitled the rational policy model (model i) Two alternative conceptual models, here labeled an organization. Model (model ii) and a bureaucratic politics models (model iii) provide a base for improved explanation and prediction. Although there are three models, allison states that decisions, most likely result from a combination of the models. General propositions: basic assumption of value maximizing behavior is formulated from a combination of: relevant values and objectives, perceived alternative courses of action, estimates of various sets of consequences and the net valuation of each set of consequences.

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