COMMERCE 2OC3 Chapter 4: Chapter 4 OM

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When manager of disney receives a report he gets two numbers: the forecast of yesterdays attendance at the parks and the actual attendance. An error close to 0 is expected. With 20% of walt disney world resorts customers coming from outside of us, its economic model includes such variables such as gdp, exchange rates, and arrivals into the us. Uses analysts and field people to survey people each year at hotels, travel industry etc. They examine hotel, employees, travel industry professionals and forecast which ride will be rode. Look airline specials, trends, school districts and their vacation days. Dis(cid:374)e(cid:455)"s fi(cid:448)e (cid:455)ear atte(cid:374)da(cid:374)(cid:272)e fore(cid:272)asts (cid:455)ield just a 5% error o(cid:374) a(cid:448)erage. Its annual forecasts have a 0% to 3% error. Demand can be managed by limiting the number of guests admitted to the parks, with the (cid:862)fast pass(cid:863) reser(cid:448)atio(cid:374) s(cid:455)ste(cid:373) a(cid:374)d (cid:271)(cid:455) shifti(cid:374)g (cid:272)ro(cid:449)ds fro(cid:373) rides to (cid:373)ore street parades. Forecasting: the art and science of predicting future events.

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