PSY 308 Chapter Notes - Chapter 7: Fallacy, Central Tendency, Sampling Bias
22 Apr 2016
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0. 5 to the power of 5 = 3% 15a 5b 6c 4d 5e 5f 3g 6h 7i 4j 7k 8l. The probability of an event happening over many trials. Ex. the probability of having to buy a drink > increases over time. The error that believing that the occurrence of two events is more probable than the occurrence of one event. Ex. the probability that an earthquake that causes a ood in north america is more probable than just a ood occurring. 30% probability of rain ev = (probability of win/rain) x (value of win) 70% probability of no rain + (probability of a loss/no rain) x (value of a loss) 0. 3(5) + 0. 7(-10) = -5. 5 which means that in the long run, you will loose . 50 every time you bet. Personal estimates of likelihood, not based on math.
