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Chapter 5

Chapter 5 Human resources planning.docx

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Simon Fraser University
Business Administration
BUS 381
Natalie Zhao

Chapter 5 Human resources planning The strategic importance of human resources planning Human resources planning (HRP): the process of forecasting future human resources requirements to ensure that the organization will have the required number of employees with the necessary skills to meet its strategic objectives. ****HRP is a proactive process, which both anticipates and influences an organization’s future by systematically forecasting the demand for and supply of employees under changing conditions and by developing plans and activities to satisfy these needs.**** ****Effective HRP helps an organization to achieve its strategic goals and objectives, achieve economies in hiring new workers, make major labour market demands more successfully, anticipate and avoid shortages and surpluses of human resources, and control and/or reduce labour cost.**** Lack of or inadequate human resources planning within an organization can result in significant costs when unstaffed positions create costly inefficiencies and when severance pay is required for large numbers of employees being laid off.(背) ****perhaps most importantly, ineffective HRP can lead to the inability to accomplish short-term operational plans and /or long-range strategic plans.****  Steps in HRP Once the human resources implications of the organzation’s strategic plans have been analyzed, three subsequent processes are involved in HRP: 1. Forecasting future human resources needs(demand) 2. Forecasting the availability of internal and external candidates(supply) 3. Planning and implementing HR programs to balance supply and demand Step1: Forecasting future human resources needs(demand) ****in large organizations, needs forecasting is primarily quantitative in nature and is the responsibility of highly trained specialists.**** Quantitative techniques for determining human resources requirements include trend analysis, ratio analysis, scatter plot analysis, regression analysis, and computerized forecasting.(背) ****Qualitative approaches to forecasting rage from sophisticated analytical models to informal expert opinions about future needs.****  Quantitative approaches  Trend analysis Trend analysis: the study of a firm’s past employment levels over a period of years to predict future needs.  Ratio analysis Ratio analysis: A forecasting technique for determining future staff needs by suing ratios between some causal factor (such as sales volume) and the number of employees needs.  The scatter plot Scatter plot: a graphical method used to help identify the relationship between two variables. ****carefully drawing a line that minimizes the distances between the line and each of the plotted point (the line of best fit) permits an estimate of the number of nurses required for hospitals of various sizes.****  Regression analysis Regression analysis: a statistical technique involving the use of a mathematical formula to project future demands based on an established relationship between an organization’s employment level (dependent variable) and some measurable factor of output (independent variable)  Qualitative approaches ****in contrast to quantitative approaches, which utilize statistical formulas, qualitative techniques rely solely on expert judgments. Two approaches used to gather such opinions in order to forecast human resources demand (or supply) are the nominal group and Delphi techniques.**** Nominal group technique: a decision-making technique that involves a group of experts meeting face to face. Steps include independent idea generation, clarification and open discussion, and private assessment. ****the advantages of this technique include involvement of key decision makers, a future focus, and the fact that the group discussion involved in the third step can facilitate the exchange of ideas and greater acceptance of results. Drawbacks include subjectivity and the potential for group pressure to lead to less accurate assessment than could be obtained through other means.****  The Delphi technique Delphi technique: a judgmental forecasting method used to arrive at a group decision, typically involving outside experts as well as organizational employees. Ideas are exchanged without fact-to-face interaction and feedback is provided and used to fine-tune independent judgments until a consensus is reached. ****as with the nominal group technique, the advantages include involvement of key decision makers and a future focus; however, the Delphi technique permits the group to critically evaluate a wider range of views. Drawbacks include the fact that judgments may not efficiently use objective data, the time and costs involved, and the potential difficulty in integrating diverse opinions.**** Step2: forecasting the availability of internal and external candidates (supply) There are two sources of supply: 1. Internal---present employees who can be transferred or promoted to meet anticipated needs. 2. External---people in the labour market not current
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