AUPSY102 Chapter 12: MemoryCognitionPSY263-ChapterTwelve

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Augustana Faculty - Psychology
Katharine Bailey

Chapter 12 → Judgment and Reasoning Judgment Experience is an extraordinary teacher Attribute Substitution Frequency Estimate​ → People’s assessment of how often an event has occurred in the past, or how common an object is in the world. Attribute Substitution​ → A commonly used strategy in which a person needs one type of information but relies instead on a more accessible form of information. This strategy works well if the more accessible form of information is, in fact, well correlated with the desired information. An example is the case in which someone needs information about how frequent an event is in the world and relies instead on how easily he or she can think of examples of the event availability heuristic​ A particular form of attribute substitution in which the person needs to judge the frequency of a certain type of object or the likelihood of a certain type of event. For this purpose, the person is likely to assess the ease with which examples of the object or event come to mind; this “availability” of examples is then used as an index of frequency or likelihood. representativeness heuristic​ A strategy that is often used in making judgments about categories. This strategy is broadly equivalent to making the assumption that, in general, the instances of a category will resemble the prototype for that category and, likewise, that the prototype resembles each instance. Table 12.1 Page 431 The Availability Heuristic Heuristic​ → A strategy that is reasonably efficient and works most of the time. In using a heuristic, one is in effect choosing to accept some risk of error in order to gain efficiency. Sometimes we can be wrong (More R’s at start or middle… most choose start because thats whats is “Available” to us in memory/ We can recall more. But really there are more R’s in the middle of words than at the start Recall 6 assertive times vs 12 assertive times… easier to recall 6 so you will think you’re more assertive whereas those who can’t get all 12 will think they are less assertive. We expect each individual to resemble the other individuals in the category (i.e., we expect each individual to be representative of the category overall). The Representativeness Heuristic The category “birds,” for example, is reasonably uniform with regard to the traits of having wings, having feathers, and so on. Virtually every member of the category has these traits, and so, in these regards, each member of the category resembles all the others. The representativeness heuristic capitalizes on this homogeneity People think if you get a lot of heads when flipping a coin that a tail is due → Gambler's Fallacy… but a coin as no memory so the chances will be 50/50 on every toss The assumption of homogeneity can also lead to a different error—an expectation that the entire category will have the same properties as the individual category members Watching a video of prison guards nice/mean and then inferring that they are all that way Detecting Covariation Covariation​ → A relationship between two variables such that the presence (or magnitude) of one variable can be predicted from the presence (or magnitude) of the other. Co-variation can be positive or negative. If it is positive, then increases in one variable occur when increases in the other occur. If it is negative, then decreases in one variable occur when increases in the other occur. Illusion of Covariation People routinely “detect” covariation even where there is none Relationships/Astrological signs Knee pain/Bad weather Confirmation bias​ → A family of effects in which people seem more sensitive to evidence that confirms their beliefs than they are to evidence that challenges their beliefs. Thus, if people are given a choice about what sort of information they would like in order to evaluate their beliefs, they request information that is likely to confirm their beliefs. Likewise, if they are presented with both confirming and disconfirming evidence, they are more likely to pay attention to, be influenced by, and remember the confirming evidence, rather than the disconfirming. Base Rates Base-Rate Information​ → Information about the broad likelihood of a particular type of event (also referred to as “prior probability”). Often contrasted with diagnostic information. How frequently something occurs in general Allows you to see if a drug works by comping it to the “Base Rate” Dual-Process Models Ways of Thinking: Type 1, Type 2 Dual-Process Model​ → Any model of thinking that claims people have two distinct means of making judgments—one of which is fast, efficient, but prone to error, and one that is slower, more effortful, but also more accurate. Type 1​ → A commonly used name for judgment and reasoning strategies that are fast and effortless, but prone to error. Type 2​ → A commonly used name for judgment and reasoning strategies that are slower and require more effort than Type 1 strategies, but are less prone to error. ​One hypothesis is that people choose when to rely on each system; presumably, they shift to the less efficient, more accurate Type 2 when making a judgment that really matters. As we’ve seen, however, people rely on Type 1’s heuristics even when incentives are offered for accuracy, even when making important professional judgments, even when making medical diagnoses that may, in some cases, literally be matters of life and death. Surely people would choose to use Type 2 in these cases if they could, yet they still rely on Type 1 and fall into error. On these grounds, it’s difficult to argue that using Type 2 is a matter of deliberate choice. Codable Data Better quality judgements are more likely if the role of random chance is conspicuous in a problem. People are more likely to see that the evidence could be a fluke or accident and not be a reliable pattern… people are then more likely to pay attention to the quantity of evidence on the (sensible) idea that a larger set of observations is less vulnerable to chance fluctuation. People are more accurate in their judgments, and less prone to heuristic use, when confronting evidence that is easily understood in statistical terms Education How well pe
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