STAT151 Chapter Notes - Chapter 9: Casino Token, Dependent And Independent Variables, Randomness

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STAT151 Full Course Notes
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STAT151 Full Course Notes
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Random outcomes have a lot of structure, especially when viewed in the long run. Ex. coin toss (cid:272)a(cid:374)"t (cid:271)e sure for o(cid:374)e flip (cid:271)ut (cid:272)o(cid:374)fide(cid:374)t that it would (cid:271)e heads 50% of. How should we generate random numbers: co(cid:373)puters (cid:272)a(cid:374)"t ge(cid:374)erate trul(cid:455) ra(cid:374)do(cid:373) (cid:374)u(cid:373)(cid:271)ers (cid:271)e(cid:272)ause the(cid:455) follow progra(cid:373)s. Eventually sequence repeats: the best ways we know to generate data that give a fair and accurate picture of the world rely o randomness, and how we draw conclusions from those data depends on understanding randomness. Simulation: mimics reality by using random numbers to represent the outcomes of real events. Trial: each time we obtain a simulated answer to a question. We do simulations because it is hard to guess how many trials we would need to get an expected result. Component: building block of simulation, co(cid:373)po(cid:374)e(cid:374)t"s out(cid:272)o(cid:373)e is (cid:374)ot desired result, need to observe a sequence of components (ex. coin toss) before we get both results.

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