FARE 3310 Chapter Notes - Chapter 4: Delphi Method, Time Series, Forecast Error

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Forecasting: the art and science of predicting future events. In uence of product life cycle: products in rst two stages of the life cycle (introduction, growth) need longer forecasts. Economic forecasts: planning indicators that are valuable in helping organizations prepare medium-to-long range forecasts. Technological forecasts: long-term forecasts concerned with the rates of technological progress. Demand forecasts: projections of a company"s sales for each time period in the planning horizon. The strategic importance of forecasting: forecast is the only estimate of demand until actual demand becomes known, look at human resources, capacity, supply-chain management. Sunday, february 19, 2017: forecasts are seldom perfect. Quantitative forecasts: forecasts that employ mathematical modelling to forecast demand. Qualitative forecasts: forecasts that incorporate such factors as the decision maker"s intuition, emotions, personal experiences, and value system. Time series models: uses a series of past data points to make a forecast: naive approach, moving averages, exponential smoothing.

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