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Module 2.docx

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University of Guelph
PSYC 1000
Dan Meegan

Module 2 Thinking Critically With Psychological Science The Need for Psychological ScienceCannot lie solely on intuition and common sense Hindsight bias overconfidence and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events often lead us to overestimate our intuition o Scientific inquiry help sift reality from illusion Did We Know It All Along Hindsight BiasTendency to believe after learning an outcome that one would have foreseen it Common sense more easily describes what has happened not what will happen Overconfidence Humans tend to think we know more than we do Perceiving Order in Random Events Random sequences often dont look randomo Even in random data we often find order o Patterns and streaks occur more often than people expect When flipping a coin although patterns show one flip gives no clue to the outcome of the next1 in 1 billion people occurs 7 times a day 2500 times a year The Scientific Attitude Curious Skeptical and HumbleUnderlying all science is hardheaded curiosity o Passion to explore and understand without misleading or being misledo No matter how sense seeming or wild an idea a smart thinker asks Does it work When put to test can its predictions be confirmedBe skeptical but not cynical open minded but not gullibleCurious skepticismo What do you mean How do you knowHumility o An awareness of own vulnerability to error and openness to surprises and new perspectives What matters is truths revealed in response to questioningCritical ThinkingThinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions o Rather it examines assumptions discerns hidden valuesevaluates science and assesses conclusions
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