Chapter 4

6 Pages
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Department
Communication, Culture and Technology
Course Code
CCT225H5
Professor
Max Evans

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Description
Chapter4:Decision Supportand Artificial Intelligence Monday,April 04,2011 5:21PM INTRODUCTION • 4distinctphasesfordecisionmaking 1. Intelligence(findwhattofix)→findorrecognizeaproblem,need,oropportunity i. Signs:customerrequests,threatofcompetition,decliningsales,risingcosts 2. Design(findfixes)→possiblewaystosolveaproblem,fillingtheneedortakingadvantageof theopportunity i. Developallpossiblesolutions 3. Choice(pickafix)→examineandweighthemeritsofeachsolution,estimatethe consequencesofeach,andchoosethebestone 4. Implementation(applythefix)→carryoutthechosensolution,monitorhtresultsandmake adjustmentsasnecessary • Notnecessarilylinear • Anothermodelofdecisionmaking:Satisficing • Satisficing→makingachoicethatmeetsyourneedsandissatisfactorywithoutnecessarilybeing thebestpossiblechoiceavailable:combinationofsatisfiedandsuffice • 4maintypesofdecisions 1. Structureddecision→processingacertainkindofinformationinaspecifiedwaysothatyou willalwaysgettherightanswer i. Nofeelorintuitionnecessary ii. Kindsofdecisionsyoucanprogram--certainsetofinputsandprocesstheminaprecise way=correct result iii. Ex.Calculatinggrosspayforhourlyworkers 2. Nonstructureddecision→oneforwhichtheremaybeseveralrightanswers,andthereisno precisewaytogetarightanswer i. Norulesorcriteriaexistthatguaranteeyouagoodsolution ii. Ex.Decidingwhethertointroduceanewproductline,marketingcampaign,change corporateimage iii. Mostdecisions,inreality,fallunderstructuredandunstructured;ex.Choosingajob 3. Recurringdecision→onethathappensrepeatedly,andoftenperiodically,whetherweekly, monthly,quarterly,oryearly. i. Ex.Decidinghowmuchinventorytocarry,whatpriceto sellitat 4. Nonrecurring/adhocdecision→onethatyoumakefrequently(perhapsonlyonce),andyou mayevenhavedifferentcriteriafordeterminingthebestsolutioneachtime i. Ex.Companymergers,decidingwheretobuildadistributioncentre DecisionSupportSystems • Decisionsupportsystem(DSS)→ahighlyflexibleandinteractiveITsystemthatisdesignedto supportdecisionmakingwhentheproblemisnotstructured ○ Alliancebetweenyou(thedecisionmaker)andspecializedsupportprovidedbyIT ○ ITbringsspeed,vastamountofinformationandprocessingcapabilities ○ Youbring:experience,intuition,judgmentandknowledge ○ ITprovidesgreatpower,butyoumustknowwhatkindsofquestionstoaskof theinfoand howtoprocesstheinformationtogetthosequestionsanswered ○ PrimaryobjectiveofDSS:improveyoureffectivenessasadecisionmakingbyprovidingyou withassistancethatwillcomplementyourinsights. ○ Unionhelpsyouquicklyrespondtomarketplacechangesandeffectivelymanageresources ComponentsofaDecisionSupportSystem • 3components 1. Modelmanagement 1. Modelmanagement i. Modelscreatenewinfo 2. Datamanagement i. Storesinfo 3. Userinterfacemanagement i. Accessinfoandspecifymodels • Process: 1. YoutelltheDSS(usingtheuserinterfacemanagementcomponent)whichmodel(inthe modelmanagementcomponent)touseonwhatinformation(inthedatamanagement component) 2. Themodelrequeststheinformationfromthedatamanagementcomponent,analyzesthat information,andsendstheresulttotheuserinterfacemanagementcomponent,whichpasses theresultsbacktoyou ModelManagementComponent • Modelmanagementcomponent→consistsofboththeDSSmodelsandtheDSS model managementsystem • Model:representationofsomeevent,fact,orsituation • Usemodelstorepvariablesandtheirrelationships • ModelsyouuseinaDSS dependonthedecisionyou'remakingand,consequently,thekindof analysisyourequire • StoresandmaintainstheDSS'smodels • RequiresYOUtochoosewhichmodeltouse • Helpsyoucreateandmanipulatemodels DataManagementComponent • Datamanagementcomponent→performsthefunctionofstoringandmaintainingtheinformation thatyouwant yourDSS to use • ConsistsofboththeDSSinformationandtheDSSdatabasemanagementsystem • TheinformationyouuseinyourDSScomesfromoneormore of3 sources: 1. Organizationalinformation i. DesignyourDSSto accessthisinfodirectlyfromyourcompany'sdatabasesanddata warehouses 2. Externalinformation i. Somedecisionrequireinputfromexternalsourcesofinformation 3. Personalinformation i. Youcan incorporateyourowninsightsandexperience-yourpersonalinformation-into yourDSS UserInterfaceManagementComponent • Userinterfacemanagementcomponent→allowsyoutocommunicatewiththeDSS • Consistsoftheuserinterfaceandtheuserinterfacemanagementsystem • Allowsyoutocombineyourknow-howwithtstorageandprocessingcapabilitiesofthecomputer • Partofthe systemyousee:throughityouenterinformation,commandsandmodel GeographicInformationSystems • Geographicinformationsystem(GIS)→isadecisionsupportsystemdesignedspecificallytoanalyze spatialinformation • Spatialinformation:anyinformationthatcanbeshowninmap form,suchas roads, thedistribution ofthecariboupopulation,sewersystems,orthepathofahurricane • Usedtoanalyzeinfo,generatebusinessintelligence,andmakedecisions • Powerfulcomboofdatabaseandgraphicstechnology • Businessgeography→WhenbusinessesuseGISsoftwaretogeneratemapsshowinginformationof interesttothem interesttothem • DSS'sandGIS's are ITsystemsthataugmentbusinessbrainpower • Itcan furtherexpandbusinessbrainpowerbyAI • Artificialintelligence(AI)→Thescienceofmakingmachinesimitatehumanthinkingandbehaviour • Usedbyfinancialanalysts,hospitals,CRAandCanadianArmedForces,CCcompanies • AIsystemscanbeclassifiedinto4majorcategories: 1. Expertsystems 2. Neuralnetworks(andfuzzylogic) 3. Geneticalgorithms 4. Intelligentagents(oragent-basedtechnologies) ExpertSystems • AIprovidesyouwithanexpertsystemthatcancaptureexpertise,thusmakingitavailabletothose whoarenot expertssothattheycan useit,eithertosolveaproblemorto learnhowto solvea problem • Expertsystem(knowledge-basedsystem)→AIsystemthatappliesreasoningcapabilitiestoreacha conclusion • Excellentfordiagnosticandprescriptiveproblems • Diagnostic:requireananswertothequestion,correspondtointelligentphaseofdecisionmaking • Prescriptive: requireananswertothequestion,correspondtothechoicephaseofdecisionmaking • Usuallybuiltforaspecificapplicationcalled:domain • Foundin:accounting,medicine,processcontrol,humanresourcemanagement,financialmgm • DSSsometimesincorporatesexpertsystems,butanexpertsystemisfundamentallydifferentfroma DSS • Tousea DSS:must haveconsiderableknowledgeorexpertiseaboutthesituationwithwhichyou're dealing ○ Assistsyouinmakingadeecision • Expertsystem:know-howisinthesystem-youonlyneedtoprovidethesystemwiththefactsand thesymptomsoftheproblem • Trafficlights ○ Green:proceedthrough ○ Red:stop→unabletostop andiftrafficis approaching:trouble! ○ Yellow:youmaybeabletomakeitthroughbeforeitturnsred →if not:trouble! WhatExpertSystemsCan and Can'tDo • Forproblemswithclearrulesandprocedures:workwell • CAN ○ Handlemassiveamtsofinfo ○ Reduceerrors ○ Aggregateinfofromvarioussources ○ Improvecustomerservice ○ Provideconsistencyindecisionmaking ○ Providenewinformation
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