on the gap in income with the US. At half of the US income, growth will exceed the us rate by
1.5 percent. So that the growth will be around 3.2 percent per year.
Dark points between 1990-2005 for fast growing countries, group of countries with fast growth,
than a group of middle income countries with rapid growth somewhat less than the growth of the
poor countries, and a cluster of rich countries with modest yet positive growth. Most poor
countries fall short of their potential for convergence because of notable liabilities regarding their
baseline levels of infrastructure, health education or governance.
More countries joining convergence club- literacy has spread to almost all of the worlds
population, china and india small villages have roads, technology as cellphone has spread,
aspirations to join the global economy are nearly universal
Run convergence to 2050, if US growth maintains 1.7 percent per annum, if the rest of the world
achieves growth in proportion to the income gap with the US, the poorest countries grow more
rapidly, then slow toward 1.7 percent per annum as they close the income gap with the US.
World per capita income grows by 4.5 ttimes between 2005 and 2050, this is highly optimistic in
that countries avoid crisis and US still grows.
More people & higher incomes
6.6billion in 2007, to 9.2 billion in 2050, is this too many people, since most of the population
will grow in poor countries. The magnitude of economic activity on the planet is calculated by
multiplying the average income per person by the number of people, in our convergence scenario
worlds income per person rises by around fourfold between 05 and 50. This leads them to think
67 trillion in 2005, to 420 trillion in 2050.
The American century will end sometime between second quarter of the twenty-first century,
when Asia becomes center of gravity in world economy. According to convergence scenario,
Asia’s share of global income would rise to around 49 percent by 2025, to around 54 percent in
2050. History: rise of Germany/Japan gave rise to rivalries with leading powers of US/GB, as
neoconservatives in US believe in being the sole superpower, have its way and unrealistic views
can trigger similarly unrealistic nationalism within China & India.
Most of worlds population will live in urban centers than villages. Rise of scientific farming-
modern seed varieties, chemical fertilizers, has enabled a declining share of the worlds
population to feed all the rest, moving people to cities. High productivity farming has gone with
overall economic development. Rising rate of urbanization benefits- agricultural productivity
fees labor to work in cities but technological advances makes the work easier.