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Chapter 2

POL343 WEEK 2 Chapter 2.docx

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Department
Political Science
Course Code
POL343Y5
Professor
Justin Bumgardner

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POL343 WEEK 2, Chapter 2
Our Crowded Planet.
Six Earth Changing Trends
1) process: process of sustained economic growth reached most of the world, humanity on
average is getting richer in terms of income per person, gap in average per person between rich
world and much of the developing world is narrowing
2) Population: rising, amplifies the overall growth of the economy, not only are we producing
more output on average, many more of us by midcentury, the scale of the worlds economic
production is therefore likely to be several times that today.
3) Rise in income: greatest in Asia, half of worlds population lives there, economic center of
gravity in Asia
4) people live: is changing, from rural to global urban civilizations, crossed the midway path
between urban and rural in 2008
5) overall: human activity of physical envivornment is producing crisis,
6) gap: gap between the richest and the poorest is widening to proportions simply unimaginable,
bottom billion people stuck in poverty trap, which has prevented them from experiencing
economic growth center of crisis is Sub-Saharan Africa, also has fastest population growth.
Six Trends that will Shape this Century
Age of Convergence
Worlds pop 1950, 2.5 bil to 6.6 bil, western asia- 1950s, 51mil to 220 mil in 2007, more
economic growth to come, because of income per person will rise, though sustained economic
growth is rising. This is fueled by globalization- networks of trade, finance, production,
technology and migration.
Convergence- to describe processes by which poorer countries catch up with richer countries,
when the per capita income in poorer regions ries more rapidly in percentage terms than the per
capita income of the richer regions, so that the ratio of per capita incomes of the poor regions to
the rich regions rise towards one, the same standard of living. Brazil, China, India; achieve
market based economic growth based on globalization, they are not only to raise living standards
but to narrow the per capita income gap with the rich countries
Future economic convergence- rule of thumb: as the preconditions for convergence are met
(countries not stuck in poverty trap). Todays leader US sustains average annual growth in per
capita income of 1.7 percent, with income level around 40,000. The growth of followers depends
on the gap in income with the US. At half of the US income, growth will exceed the us rate by
1.5 percent. So that the growth will be around 3.2 percent per year.
Dark points between 1990-2005 for fast growing countries, group of countries with fast growth,
than a group of middle income countries with rapid growth somewhat less than the growth of the
poor countries, and a cluster of rich countries with modest yet positive growth. Most poor
countries fall short of their potential for convergence because of notable liabilities regarding their
baseline levels of infrastructure, health education or governance.
More countries joining convergence club- literacy has spread to almost all of the worlds
population, china and india small villages have roads, technology as cellphone has spread,
aspirations to join the global economy are nearly universal
Run convergence to 2050, if US growth maintains 1.7 percent per annum, if the rest of the world
achieves growth in proportion to the income gap with the US, the poorest countries grow more
rapidly, then slow toward 1.7 percent per annum as they close the income gap with the US.
World per capita income grows by 4.5 ttimes between 2005 and 2050, this is highly optimistic in
that countries avoid crisis and US still grows.
More people & higher incomes
6.6billion in 2007, to 9.2 billion in 2050, is this too many people, since most of the population
will grow in poor countries. The magnitude of economic activity on the planet is calculated by
multiplying the average income per person by the number of people, in our convergence scenario
worlds income per person rises by around fourfold between 05 and 50. This leads them to think
67 trillion in 2005, to 420 trillion in 2050.
Asian Century:
The American century will end sometime between second quarter of the twenty-first century,
when Asia becomes center of gravity in world economy. According to convergence scenario,
Asia’s share of global income would rise to around 49 percent by 2025, to around 54 percent in
2050. History: rise of Germany/Japan gave rise to rivalries with leading powers of US/GB, as
neoconservatives in US believe in being the sole superpower, have its way and unrealistic views
can trigger similarly unrealistic nationalism within China & India.
Urban Century:
Most of worlds population will live in urban centers than villages. Rise of scientific farming-
modern seed varieties, chemical fertilizers, has enabled a declining share of the worlds
population to feed all the rest, moving people to cities. High productivity farming has gone with
overall economic development. Rising rate of urbanization benefits- agricultural productivity
fees labor to work in cities but technological advances makes the work easier.

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Description
POL343 WEEK 2 Chapter 2 Our Crowded Planet Six Earth Changing Trends1process process of sustained economic growth reached most of the world humanity on average is getting richer in terms of income per person gap in average per person between rich world and much of the developing world is narrowing2 Population rising amplifies the overall growth of the economy not only are we producing more output on average many more of us by midcentury the scale of the worlds economic production is therefore likely to be several times that today3 Rise in income greatest in Asia half of worlds population lives there economic center of gravity in Asia4 people live is changing from rural to global urban civilizations crossed the midway path between urban and rural in 2008 5 overall human activity of physical envivornment is producing crisis 6 gap gap between the richest and the poorest is widening to proportions simply unimaginable bottom billion people stuck in poverty trap which has prevented them from experiencing economic growth center of crisis is SubSaharan Africa also has fastest population growth Six Trends that will Shape this CenturyAge of ConvergenceWorlds pop 1950 25 bil to 66 bil western asia 1950s 51mil to 220 mil in 2007 more economic growth to come because of income per person will rise though sustained economic growth is rising This is fueled by globalization networks of trade finance production technology and migration Convergence to describe processes by which poorer countries catch up with richer countries when the per capita income in poorer regions ries more rapidly in percentage terms than the per capita income of the richer regions so that the ratio of per capita incomes of the poor regions to the rich regions rise towards one the same standard of living Brazil China India achieve market based economic growth based on globalization they are not only to raise living standards but to narrow the per capita income gap with the rich countriesFuture economic convergence rule of thumb as the preconditions for convergence are met countries not stuck in poverty trap Todays leader US sustains average annual growth in per capita income of 17 percent with income level around 40000 The growth of followers depends
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