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Chapter 11

POLA02H3 Chapter Notes - Chapter 11: Serbian Nationalism, Autarky, Longrun


Department
Political Science
Course Code
POLA02H3
Professor
Renan Levine
Chapter
11

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Week 11 Reading
Democratization and the Danger of War
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 !"#
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
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&&$"
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# 
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2$"
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>"$+++'
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+&$"$-$"$?
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@"'A&B
;"$
@"&$$"$$&-""$
Combination of incipient democratization and material resources of great power produced
nationalism + major war
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Quantitative Analysis: De$nitions, Measures, and Techniques
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
AB&$&7$$,$$80!9
-$&##",,&G$
3",,&
democratization as a gradual process rather than a sudden change
+*#$,",$
$$$&$"$$",thelikelihood of war might increase gradually
over the following decade
-
0"!$&"&#,
#,
,)$3"
0&$&#$$8<-
I<,$&$$9
$",&
$##$$&"
'3$
2&"$"$&#,#,$$
$
,$$)"3&
"$&
%#
%#
#
#
>
>
,")"3"3
-3$$8$)*D
39
The greater the value of statistic, the lower the probability that regime change and
war are statistically independent
Democratization and War: Statistical Findings
-
%#$6$&! 

"$&#$&)

,#-$6$&'
)"
$"#-&"6
-&"
-!&#
)"
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