POLB80 chapter4

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Political Science
Francis Wiafe- Amoako

M04GOLD957710SEC04qxd11011914 PMPage 126Foreign PolicyCHAPTER 4The White House Oval Ofce 2010M04GOLD957710SEC04qxd11011914 PMPage 127CHAPTER OUTLINEMaking Foreign PolicyMaking Foreign PolicyModels of Decision MakingModels of DecisionMakingThe foreign policy process is a process of decision makingStates take actions becauseIndividual Decision1people in governmentsdecision makerschoose those actionsDecision making isMakersa steeringprocess in which adjustments are made as a result of feedback from the outGroup Psychologyside world Decisions are carried out by actions taken to change the world and thenCrisis Managementinformation from the world is monitored to evaluate the effects of these actionsDomestic InuencesThese evaluationsalong with information about other independent changes in theBureaucraciesenvironmentgo into the next round of decisions see Figure 41Interest GroupsA common starting point for studying the decisionmaking process is theThe MilitaryIndustrial2rational modelIn this model decision makers set goals evaluate their relativeCompleximportance calculate the costs and benefits of each possible course of action thenPublic Opinionchoose the one with the highest benefits and lowest costs see Figure 42LegislaturesThe choice may be complicated by uncertaintyabout the costs and benefits ofvarious actions In such cases decision makers must attach probabilities to each possibleoutcome of an action For example will pressuring a rival state to give ground in peacetalks work or backre Some decision makers are relatively accepting of riskwhereasothers are averse to riskThese factors affect the importance that decision makers placeon various alternative outcomes that could result from an actionOf course one may believe decision makers are rational but not accept the realistassumption that states may be treated as unitary actors Governments are made up of inPODCASTdividuals who may rationally pursue their goals Yet the goals of different individualsinvolved in making a decision may diverge as may the goals of different state agenciesFor example the US secretary of state may have a different goal than thesecretary ofFIGURE 41Decision Making as SteeringactionsImplementationeffectsIndividualInternational andDecision and group domestic politicsmakingpsychologysituationsPerceptionmonitoringfiltering1Stein Janice Gross Psychological Explanations of International Conict In Carlsnaes Walter ThomasRisse and Beth A Simmons eds Handbook of International RelationsSage 2002 pp 292308 SnyderRichard C H W Bruck and Burton Sapin Foreign Policy Decision Making RevisitedPalgrave 20022The rational model along with the organizational process and bureaucratic politics models discussed laterderives from Graham Allison see Allison Graham T and Philip Zelikow Essence of Decision Explainingthe Cuban Missile Crisis2nd ed Longman 1999 Bernstein Barton J Understanding Decisionmaking USForeign Policy and the Cuban Missile Crisis International Security25 1 2000 13464127
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