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Chapter 13

Chapter 13.docx

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George Cree

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Chapter 13Reasoning Thinking Through the Implications of What You KnowDeduction Process where we start w claimsassertions and ask what follows from these premises premisesconclusions lets us make predictions on future eventsConfirmation and DisconfirmationWhat to do with uncertain casesNormative questionshow ought to reasonambiguity of confirming evidence and great value of disconfirming evidenceConfirmation BiasUseful to seek out evidence that supports AND challenges beliefConfirmation bias Strong tendency to seek out confirming evidence and rely on evidence in drawing their conclusion 1 When people assess beliefhypothesismore likely to seek evidence that confirms belief than evidence then confirming it 2 When disconfirming evidence is available people fail to adjust their belief 3 When people encounter confirming evidence they take it at face value reinterpret evidence to diminish impact 4 People fail to consider alternative hypotheses to explain available data ie Wason presented research participants series of number 246 rule was in ascending orderand asked to figure out rule and make their own trio of numbers then announce their discovery People had hard time discovering the rule requiring several minutes bc of kinds of information they requested they confirm the rules they had had proposed and didnt disconfirmMemory for Disconfirming EvidenceWhen people encounter evidence that fits w teir view they accept it at face value but when faced w disconfirming evidence they are sceptical about it find ways to reinterpret evidencemakes it more memorable Belief PerseveranceBelief perseverance Tendency to continue endorsing some assertion even when available evidence undermines that claim ie people asked to study series of suicide notes find which ones are real and fake People offered their judgments and provided w feedback on how well they were doing The trick was feedback was predetermined and had nothing to do w the judgment People told they did above averageothers told opposite Participants were debriefed and given social sensitivity assessment People in aboveaverage group thought their social sensitivity was above average and able to judge suicide notesBc of confirmation bias you will check on researchers information by seeking other facts in memory that might confirm your social perceptionhave 2 sources of evidenceEven if researcher discredits your information you still might maintain your belief LogicWhy are people vulnerable to confirmation biasReasoning about SyllogismsCategorical syllogisms Type of logical argument beginning w premises need to be valid syllogismsargumentsPeople who are asked to reason about syllogisms do poorly Chapman and Chapman 1959 gave participants syllogisms Premise All P are M and All S are MAll S are P81 believed this People do better when put to concrete terms All plumbers are mortal and All sadists are mortalAll sadists are plumbersSources of Logical Errors
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