Textbook Notes (363,520)
Canada (158,392)
Statistics (133)
STAB22H3 (130)
Ken Butler (11)
Chapter 14

STAB22- Chapter 14, Butler, Summer 2012, Textbook Notes

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University of Toronto Scarborough
Ken Butler

CHAPTER 14 FROM RANDOMNESS TO PROBABILITY WHERE ARE WE GOINGrandom in the shortterm predictable in longterm ex Flipping a coin cannot predict oucome of one flip bc its random but if its fair coin then can predict proportion of heads likely to see in longtermfocus of this chapter and subsequent longterm predictability of randomnessWays of assessing randomnessempirically ex weather forecaster says that there is 40 chance of rain and they did this by looking at past maps thatre similar to todays and findingof those that were rainy daystheoretically ex odds of winning 649 jackpot are 1 in 14 millionsubjectively ex Susie arrives at her likelihood getting an A based on how she views course material her study habits and her optimistic views p377 EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY 1 ex of RANDOM PHENOMENONwhether light is red green or yellow as you reach intesection pattern of own driving is randomits not signal lighting bc that is lit a certain colour precisely at and for certain time intervals 2as we see more and more outcomes overallof times that light is approaching a certain valas new data vals are recorded each new outcome becomes smaller and smaller prop of overall experiencethe val is approaching is the likelihood explot ofgreen light against daysgraph begins at 100 bc the first time we ran into light being green so 11100
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