Graham Allison Decision makers notes

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University of Toronto St. George
Political Science
John Haines

TOPIC: DECISIONS AND DECISION-MAKERS Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis ZZo}}l]L2]LZZK]}LZL 2}]ZLoZZoZLZ]Ll]L2}2}[ behaviour - Author looks at different models to explain decision-making Rational Policy Model - See state and nation as main actor J they act to achieve maximum gains (self interest) o ]L }L }ZLZ]L]L[o}o]] Z ^]L[oZ2] Klo _ 1. Goals and objective: national security and national interest come first always 2. Options: solve the problem by looking at all the strategic options 3. Consequences: look at result of each option; see what will cost them the most and gain them the most 4. Choice: evaluate consequences of each option, and choose what is value-maximizing (maximum gains) - Dominant pattern of interference in RCM: if nation chose a certain action, that action (in the mind of the nation) would have gained them maximum - Above (4) points create general principle for value-maximizing behaviour; gives 2 propositions: o If cost of alternative option increases, less likely that option will be followed o If c
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