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Chapter 3

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Brent Berry

Jan 22: Chapter 3: Population: Past, Present, and Futures Population History -World Population today (Table 3.1) -Not 6.55, but actually 7 billion now -Annual rate of natural increase is 1.2%  How do we get this?  Number of births/number of deaths -‘Less developed’ countries account for 81% of world population -More developed countries have an overall rate of natural increase of only 0.1%, while the rest of the world is growing substantially faster (~1.5%) -Population density measure  Some problems with how this is measured -Population varies by region From Gradual to Explosive Growth -Figure 3.1 is a nice review -Into what two segments does Ansley Coale (1974) divide population history?  Pre 1750  Post 1750 -Population Growth  Not smooth (despite appearance on graph), but irregular (abrupt increases and decreases) o What are the reasons  Cycles of population growth, decline, recover were common, followed by birth deficits and subsequent population surges  Figure 3.2 shows population growth over last 65k years  Table 3.2—note crisis mortality between 1300-1400 The Demographic Transition: -Occurs in 3 stages  Classical transition model (Fig 3.3) o High rates of both birth and death o Transitional phase of high birth and declining death rates (divided into early/late) o Concluding with low rates of both fertility and mortality Figure 3.3  Low life expectancy because of high infant mortality  Examples in Figure 3.4 (B) of Europe’s trajectory from pre- (1700) to post demographic transition regimes (regimes: period where there is a particular pattern operating at a particular time)  Lots of population growth, more stresses -Case of industrialized countries  Western and Japanese experiences o Ie. Individuals recognize that la large family is an impediment to upward mobility, Japanese used abortion as a way of controlling family size; the Irish  mass migration from rural to city, out migrations, delayed marriage, increased celibacy (and Irish were mostly catholic, so abortion not necessarily well accepted)  Living standard improves, so does the health of population, causing natural fertility levels to rise -Case of developing countries:  Differences from the West: o Pace and sources of mortality decline  Europe, mortality declined gradually  Developing nations  mortality declined rapidly o Rate of population growth o Momentum for further growth (Population momentum)  Continued growth that will continue to happen despite mortality o International migration as an outlet to relieve population pressure  Transitional and delayed transition countries (Fig 3.7) o Fertility decline o Birth rates are lower in countries where female literarcy is relatively high  What accounts for delayed development? o Colonialism: economic success closely connected to the ability to industrialize and innovate technologically o Geographic location: How does it indicate wealth? Europe’s geography gave it a number of important natural advantages (ie. Warm winds, temperate climate, Gulf stream, gentle rains, conditions that favored dense forests, good crops, large livestock) vs. nations in tropical zones experienced higher rates of infectious diseases (ie. Malaria), and lower agriculture productivity; very poor regions are those with a trop
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