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Chapter 4

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Brent Berry

Hans Rosling – Global population growth box by box (TED talks) Lecture 4: Demographic Composition – Age and Sex Structure Principles of Age and Sex Composition:  Three age segments of key interest o Under 15, aged 15-65, 65 and older  Rough approximately for calculating economic dependency burden in a society  Total-, youth-, and old age dependency ratios  Social insurance  more generous for elderly; the development of infrastructure around health and social insurance, has grown disproportionately for elderly than children. (not building more schools, etc.)  Age pyramids: o Pictorial representation of age and sex composition  Canada’s age pyramid in 2006 (Fig 4.1) o Baby boomers, busters, children of boomers, etc.  General typology of age pyramids o More vs. Least developed yet (Fig 4.2) o Rapidly growing vs. Constant growing. Declining population type pyramids ( fig 4.3) -Slight bulge to the right side; not perfectly symmetrical because of higher mortality rates for men, and there’s more hollowing effect (women have longer life, take care of self,)  developing countries (less developed). Determinants of Age Composition:  Stable population distribution conditions: o What is stable is the shape of the age distribution  Could have a growth in a population, but if we’re somehow able to hold the age distribution constant, what would happen  **Age distribution just constant, the population can grow or decrease o Stationary population is a particular kind of stable population (zero growth= constant size and age pyramid)  Stable pop model allows us to explore ‘what if scenarios’ o Allows us to compare countries o Like those described in Table 4.3 (different combinations of mortality and fertility) o Mortality improvements n young vs. Aging pops (Fig 4.4) GRR = Growth reproductive rate (the higher the level 4 is the more higher birth rate than 1) -ie. We have high life expectancy (level 6, 70 years old) and allow fertility rate (1.0) you’re going to have a higher old age (21.9  60 years +) (this is the society that Canada is right now; but if you have fertility rate of 4.0, then you have a gross young population (54.1) are between the ages of 0-14 *Helps us think about the what if situations -Young population is on top  they improve infant survival (+), and then you have the negative (maternal mortality decline) --> less maternal mortality tends to increase fertility which tends to increase the young population (also, arrows are solid, strong effects) -Old population  they’re dotted arrows (suggesting weaker effects); putting a lot of investments in old age care (helping people live with chronic diseases)  increase the population of 65+  Crude and Intrinsic growth rates o Rate of natural increase (RNI) based on crude rates does not take into account current age composition  Comparative analysis compromised  In demography, want to compare one society with another, or same society in different periods of time o Use intrinsic rate of growth can be calculated instead  How? Use the reference of stable population  Stable pop that would result if current age-specific fertility and mortality were held constant indefinitely… derive stable equivalent population, and growth rate that is free of the confounding effect of age composition  In order to compare countries (to each other, or periods in time), need to use intrinsic rates, that is free of the confounding effect of age composition  How does migration affect age-sex structure? o Keep age young (‘high quality’ migrants)  young workers wanted  Age distribution as demographic memory o Age distribution lose their memory after a few years (at one point, they’re very different)  Population momentum o For a country recently having undergone fertility decline  Momentum can be estimated as the ratio of the stationary population (eventually produced under new fertility regime) to initial population size  Momentum= size of stationary pop/size of initial pop  Hypothetical example of Sri Lanka and Sweden (Fig 4. 5)  Start very differently, but after 40-50 years, have similar shape Sri Lanka put more effort into family planning, which dramatically reduced birth rates (can see it in 1985) Sri Lanka’s population had quite a bit
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