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Tutorial Readings.docx

9 Pages

Political Science
Course Code
Political Science 2231E
Nigmendra Narain

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China’s Real and Present Danger -- Avery Goldstein  China becoming peer competitor to US  Danger of crisis between Beijing and Washington o Two nuclear-armed countries  Since the Cold War there have been multiple confrontations  If they find themselves in a showdown, they may resort to force  Tensions over rule of Taiwan have cooled over o China wanted to claim sovereignty to Taiwan  However, other potential flash points have emerged o China and neighbours are fighting over rule of island and seas o U.S is allies with Japan, Philippines and Vietnam who are in squabble over land  China might be less cautious about triggering a crisis o Less cautious about firing first shot if crisis ensues  China has 200 mile wide “exclusive economic zone” o U.S disputes freedom of navigation of seas and airspace  China and U.S have yet to reach a shared understanding of each others interests or develop reliable means for crisis management o Beijing suggested core interests of East China and South China seas o U.S questions if Taiwan falls under there security umbrella  Situation resembles the Cold War o Todays environment might be more dangerous  Military Imbalance o Both have nuclear arsenals  keeps them in check  Creates a competition in risk-taking  China believes military conflict would not escalate too far o “No First Use” nuclear policy o Prepared for conventional war, less cautious about firing first shot  Chemical Weapon lethality creates dramatic advantage to the side that attacks first o Used before adversaries has struck or adopted countermeasures to disarm there arsenal o Gives incentive to strike  Chinese analysts seem to overestimate how easy it is to send signals through military action and underestimate the risks of miscommunication  There is unreliable communication between Beijing and Washington o Possible reluctance to respond or coordinating policy  Communication could be limited to public statements or tacit signals through actions o  Creates misinterpretation of actions, unintended escalation  Final Important factor is Cold War geography o Primarily on land in Central Europe  Chinese-U.S crisis would being at sea o Submarine attacks, limited communication  Managing the Risk of U.S-Chinese crisis  Since uncertainty of about scope of interests o Countries should deepen political and military exchanges o Discussion of risks  Policy co-ordination  Stress need for use of Hot-Line  direct contact between leaders  Increase familiarity of military systems Stealth Multilateralism U.S Foreign Policy Without Treaties – or the Senate --David Kaye  U.S senate rejects multilateral treaties  Outright rejects o Right of Persons with Disabilities and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test- Ban Treaty (CTBT)  Rejects through Inaction o Pertaining to subjects of labor, economic, cultural rights, endangered species, pollution, armed conflict, peacekeeping, nuclear weapons, the law of the sea, and discrimination against women  Takes one-third of senate to reject treaty  Commitment problem  Laws get made elsewhere without American involvement  Low expectations that work will be ratified  They believe multilateral treaties represent a grave threat to American sovereignty and democracy o Create rules that interfere with democratic process  Senators control ratification  Treaty-making is an expression of sovereignty o Lose the opportunity to influence global problem solving  Rest of world resists U.S influence  China taking greater interest in global issues  Rising powers of Brazil, India and South Africa are asserting themselves  Europe is enhancing negotiating power  American disengagement is allowing these trends of accelerate  Stealth Multilateralism o Patchwork of political and legal strategies  learned to respond to global problems o Has its limits, since treaties establish more stable transparent, and predictable relationships than political commitments  U.S excludes itself from conventional legal processes o Can exert limited influence over developments  Lose offer of technical expertise and financial support from U.S  Senate will exclude U.S on treaties  subtle form of rejection  Republicans in the senate may be willing to pay the price of nonratification, but U.S presidents still have to conduct foreign policy  Legal issues that implicate U.S concerns Work Around  Presidents still have to seek solutions to global problems o Exercise leadership on a world stage  They have found ways to influence negotiations for treaties the U.S will not join, support organizations to which it is not a party, and solve problems without resorting to legally binding treaties  1996  Clinton admin adopted CTBT o began attending meetings in 2009  Nonbinding arrangements may now be the executive branch’s preferred way of doing business  Obama has taken this cooperation to unprecedented levels  Engagement without ratification o E.g. Climate change and Kyoto Protocol, International Nuclear Policy, Private Security Service Providers  Many global solutions still require the binding force and permanence that only treaties can provide  Develop international arrangements that bypass the U.S senate  Stealth multilateralism lets both Senate Republicans and the White House get their way  anti international vs. foreign policy  Not long term answers  Need the bind for legal commitments, laws and regulations o E.g. Climate change regulations, Sea regulations, bio diversity, armed conflict, public health, the arms trade and on and on  Stealth Multilateralism offers legitimate and lawful alternatives to treaties, but the American public ultimately loses out  In a perfect world, the Senate would weigh the costs and benefits of every treaty and seek to integrate the U.S Who is afraid of the International Criminal Court? --David Kaye  Soon after Libyan leader Muamar al-Qaddafi unleashed his forces against civilian protestors, UN Security Council voted the ICC to refer situation  ICC may become indispensable international player o Struggling to find its footing  Failed to complete even one trial o Governments have contributed close to 1 billion dollars to its budget since 2003  With all six of ICC’s investigations involving abuses in Africa, its reputation as a truly international tribunal is in question  The 114 countries that have ratified the Rome Statute, the ICC’s founding charter, will elect a successor to Moreno-Ocampo, the head of the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) in mid 2012  This person chooses which situations to investigate, which senior officials to indict, and which charges to bring o All sensitive positions with major political implications  Need to be prosecutorial, diplomatic, and managerial  GOALS: Conclude trials, convincing governments to arrest fugitives, conduct credible investigations in difficult places, expand ICC’s reach beyond Africa Laying Down the Law  International Criminal Tribunal for Yugoslavia during war in Bosnia (ICTY)  International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda in wake of genocide (ICTR)  Prosecute war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide  ICTY first sentence 1996, ICTY 1998  Have significantly developed international criminal jurisprudence  Triggered development of courts in respective places dealing with issues  1998 UN sponsored diplomatic conference in Rome  Would act only when national courts were unable or unwilling to do so themselves  60 signature ratified the treaty in July 2002  Sits at intersection of War and Peace, Politics and Law o Attracted enemies  China, Russia and U.S have chosen not to join it Courting Trouble  ICC operates in a complicated, hostile political environment  Moreno-Ocampo’s micromanaging and erratic decision-making  Low morale plagues the court o Not enough concrete progress  First case against Lubanaga (Congo Military Leader) using child soldiers has faltered repeatedly  Failed to implement court orders  Six years after UN Security Council referred situation in Sudan, not one suspect is in custody  Made bold move against Bashir and government  Internal dissent became exposed, public confidence in charges were undermined, disagreed against strategy used  Sundanese government went into lockdown and kicked all humanitarian workers out of Darfur o Today these are completely stalled  Investigations targeting African states -- the Central African Republic, Congo, Kenya, Libya, Sudan, and Uganda -- the court has also invited the charge that it is an agent for postcolonial Western i
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