Stanovich Ch 11:
illusory correlations: when people believe that two types of events should
commonly occur together, they tend to think that they are seeing co-
occurrences with great-frequency, even when two 2 critical events are
occurring randomly and thus do not co-occur more frequently than any other
combination of events. In short, people tend to see their expected correlation
even in random events.
Illusion of control: the tendency to believe that personal skill can affect
outcomes determined by chance. People's mistakes belief that their
behaviour determines random events.
Just-world hypothesis: the fact that people tend to believe that they live in a
just world; people tend to derogate the victims of chance misfortune. The
tendency to seek explanations for chance events contributes to this
Before accepting a complicated explanation of an event, consider what part
chance may have played in its occurrence.
We are egocentric when evaluating coincidences: people find coincidences
that happen to themselves more surprising than equally unlikely
coincidences that happened to other people
People think coincidences have meaning, they don’t. People think they're
super rare, when probability guarantees they will happen.
We must accept error to reduce error (if the subject always guesses the red
light will come on, they are giving up the chance to be correct on the blue
trials.. this is hard for people, even though the red light flashes 70% of the