Statistical Sciences 1023A/B Chapter Notes - Chapter 17: Frequency (Statistics), Fallacy
20 Apr 2017
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Misperception about random events is that they should be self-correcting. People think the long-run frequency of an event should apply even in the short run. Example: the idea that numbers of boys and girls should even out, even in small numbers. May not apply to situations in which knowledge of one outcome affects probabilities of the next (i. e. knowing one card is gone from the deck) People believe that a string of good luck is often followed by a string of bad luck. To determine the probability of a positive test result being accurate, you need only three pieces of information: The base rate or probability that you are likely to have the disease, without any knowledge of your test results. The sensitivity of the test, which is the proportion of people who correctly test positive when they actually have the disease.
