Statistical Sciences 2037A/B Chapter Notes - Chapter 14.4, 17.2: Randomness
25 Nov 2016
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Sometimes want to nd probabilities of more complicated events, so some simple logical rules about probability allow us to do this. Rules apply naturally to relative-frequent probabilities and must apply to personal probabilities if those probabilities are to be coherent. 4. if there are only 2 possible outcomes in an uncertain situation, then their probabilities must add to 1 if 2 outcomes can"t happen simultaneously they are said to be mutually exclusive. Miscalculated probabilities: common mistake when calculating probabilities is to use. Rule 3 to nd the probability of 2 events both happening when the events are not independent. Coincidence: surprising concurrence of events, perceived as meaningfully related, with no apparent causal connection. Most people think that coincidences have a low probability of occurring, but intuition can be quite misleading regarding such phenomena. It is not improbable that someone, somewhere, someday will experience this time of event. It is not surprising that something surprising will happen ex.
