MGT 3121 Chapter 17: Chapter 17
14 Mar 2017
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Document Summary
Allows us to translate multitude of info from databases into strategies that can give a service a competitive advantage. People with expertise in area are asked questions. People outside the formulated quotes of information are asked to justify their answer. It is labor intensive and requires expert knowledge. Expensive time consuming only for long term forecasting. Delphi method useful tool in addressing situation for which quantifiable data are not available. Assumes some future event is related to occurrence of earlier event. Basis for estimating the likelihood for a future event. Experienced administrator is needed to arrive at a satisfactory conditional probability matrix that can be used for generating a forecast. Assumes that the introduction and growth pattern of a new series will mimic the pattern of a similar concept for which data are available. Usually used to forecast market penetration or life cycle for new service.
