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FINC-UB 2 Chapter Notes - Chapter 7: Capital Appreciation, Expected Return, Cash Flow

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brownsquirrel735
11 Nov 2014
School
New York University
Department
Finance
Course
FINC-UB 2
Professor
A L L

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Document Summary

7. 2 quantitative measures of return: holding period returns, when people refer to the return from an investment, they are generally referring to the total return over some investment period, or holding period. The total holding period return consists of two components (1) capital appreciation (2) income. Rca is the capital appreciation component of a return: p0 is the price paid for the asset at time zero, p1 is the price at a later point in time. E (bonus) = (ph x bh) + (pnh x bnh: e (bonus) is the expected bonus, pnh is the probability of no hit, bnh is the bonus you receive if you get no hit. The expected bonus is not average, but the expected bonus less than the simple average. P1 is the probability that you will actually earn r1. On the other end of the spectrum, treasury bills have the smallest standard deviation and the smallest average annual return.

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Related Questions

Roger McDonald, 55 years old and single, is a dental surgeon and owns a dental practice. Roger has accumulated a SGD2,000,000 investment portfolio with a large concentration in small-cap Singapore equities. Over the last 5 years the portfolio has averaged 15 percent annual total return on investment. Roger does not expect to retire before he is 70 years old. His current income is more than sufficient to meet his expenses. Upon retirement, he plans to sell his medical practice and use the proceeds to purchase an annuity to cover his retirement cash flow needs. He has no additional long term goals or needs.
In consultation with Roger, his investment advisor, Justin Teo has drawn up an investment policy statement with the following elements (Justin’s notes justifying each item are included):
Risk tolerance: Roger has above average risk tolerance.
Justin’s notes:
- Roger’s present investment portfolio and his desire for larger returns indicate a high willingness to take risk.
- His financial situation (largely current asset base, has ample income to cover expenses, lack of need for liquidity or cashflow, and long time horizon) indicates a high ability to assume risk.
Return Objective: The return objective is an average total return of 10 per cent or more with a focus on long-term capital appreciation.
Justin’s notes:
- Roger’s circumstances warrant an above-average return objective that emphasizes capital appreciation for the following reasons:
- Roger has a sizable assert base and ample income to cover his current spending; therefore, the focus should be on growing the portfolio.
- Roger’s low liquidity needs and long time horizon support an emphasis on a long term capital appreciation approach.
- Roger does not rely on the portfolio to meet living expenses.
-The numerical objective of 10 per cent represents an estimate of a target Roger can aim for rather than a minimum return required to meet a specific financial goal.

Liquidity: Roger’s liquidity needs are low.
Justin’s notes:
- Roger has no regular cash flow needs from the portfolio, because the income from his medical practice meets all current spending needs.
- No large, one-time cash needs are stated. However, it could be considered appropriate to keep a small cash reserve for emergencies.
Time Horizon: Roger’s time horizon is long term and consists of 2 stages:
(1) The first stage consists of the time until his retirement, which he expects to be 15 years.
(2) The second consists of his lifetime following retirement, which could range
from 10 to 20 years. Justin has also summarised Roger’s current portfolio in Exhibit 1 below:
Value Total Return Deviation
Short-term Bonds $200,000 10% 4.6% 1.6%
Domestic Large-Cap Equities $600,000 30% 12.4% 19.5%
Domestic Small-Cap $1,200,000 60% 16.0% 29.9%
Total Portfolio $2,000,000 100% 13.8% 23.1%
Exhibit 1: Roger’s Current Investment Portfolio


Roger expects to receive an inheritance of SGD2,000,000 soon. Roger and Justin sit down to discuss its investment in one of the four index funds. Given Roger’s already above average risk tolerance and level of portfolio risk, Roger and Justin have concluded that the risk tolerance description in the current IPS remains valid; they do not want to contemplate further increase in portfolio risk. On the other hand, they do not wish to reduce expected return. Justin is evaluating the four index funds shown in Exhibit 2 below for their ability to produce a portfolio that will meet the following two criteria relative to the current portfolio:
- Maintain or enhance expected return, and
- Maintain or reduce volatility.

Each Fund in Exhibit 2 is invested in an asset class that is not substantially represented in the current portfolio shown in Exhibit 1. Exhibit 2 presents statistics on those index
funds.
Expected Expected Correlation of
Index Annual Annual Standard Returns with Current
Fund Return Deviation Portfolio’s Return
Fund A 15% 25% +0.80
Fund B 11% 22% +0.60
Fund C 16% 25% +0.90
Fund D 14% 22% +0.65
Exhibit 2: Expected Risk, Return and Correlation of 4 Index Funds under Consideration

Question 1
(a) Recommend the most appropriate index fund to add to Roger’s portfolio. Justify your recommendations by describing how your chosen fund best meets both of the stated criteria. (No calculations are required.)

(b) Twenty years later, Roger is meeting with you, his new financial advisor. You are evaluating if Roger’s investment policy remains appropriate for his changed circumstances.
- Roger is now 75 years old and retired. His spending requirements are expected to increase with the rate of general inflation, which is expected to average 3.0 per cent annually.
- Roger estimates his current living expenses at SGD150,000 annually. An annuity, purchased with the proceeds from the sale of his medical practice, provides SGD20,000 of this amount. The annuity is adjusted for inflation annually using a national price index.
- Because of poor investment performance and a high level of spending, Roger’s asset base has declined to SGD1,200,000 exclusive of the value of the annuity.
- Roger sold all of his small-cap investment last year and invested the proceeds in domestic bonds.
- Because his international equity investments have performed poorly, Roger has become markedly uncomfortable holding international equities.
-Roger plans to donate SGD60,000 to a charity in three months.

Discuss how each of the following components of Roger’s investment policy statement should now reflect the changes in his (note that the observations should focus on but not limited to the direction and magnitude of change in each component rather than on a specific numeric change):
(i) Risk tolerance
(ii) Return requirement
(iii) Liquidity needs
(iv) Time horizon

(c) Roger’s investment portfolio at 75 years old is summarised in Exhibit 3 below:
Current Expected Expected
Allocation Return Standard Deviation
Cash equivalents 2% 5% 3%
Fixed Income 75% 7% 8%
Domestic Equities 10% 10% 16%
International Equities 3% 12% 22%
Domestic Real Estate 10% 10% 17%
_______________________________________________________________
Exhibit 3: Roger’s Investment Portfolio at Age 75 Years Old


Given Roger’s changed circumstances, state whether the current allocation to each asset class should be lower, the same, or higher. Justify your response with one reason for each asset class. No calculations are required and responses should be based only on Roger’s changed circumstances and the information in
Exhibit 3.
(i) Cash Equivalents
(ii) Fixed Income
(iii) Domestic Equities
(iv) International Equities
(v) Domestic Real Estate

(d) Explain one (1) way in which Roger might seek to reduce the tension between his current return requirement and his current risk tolerance.

You have been asked to evaluate the following two schools of thought in real estate. One school argues that the value of real estate is based on “location, location, location”; the other school argues that the value of real in today’s economy must be geared in terms of cash flows. Discuss these two arguments thoroughly!! (Length: no limit

; 15%)

A property produces a PGI of $200,000. Market vacancy rate is estimated at 5%.

The OER is 40% which is also indicative of the market. For this type of property, lenders observe a strict adherence to a coverage ratio (DCR) of 1.20.

Financing is available at 5% with monthly payments for 30 years. The anticipated growth in NOI is 3% per year, compounded: and property value appreciation rate is 4% per year, compounded over 5 year holding period. Assuming a before-tax equity yield requirement of 12%, price (or value) this property on BTCF basis utilizing the Discounted Cash Flow (mortgage equity) framework.(20%)

An investor is considering an investment that has a Market Value of $2.5millions. The following information can be obtained:

Rent = $1,200 per unit per month. Rental Growth Rate = 3% per year compounded.

Number of units = 20

Vacancy rate is 12%.

Operating expenses = $125,000. Operating Expense Growth Rate = 3% per year compounded.

Loan-to-value ratio is 80%.

Interest rate on mortgage is 6%.

Maturity of mortgage = 15 years (with monthly payments).

Financing Costs = $30,000 amortized over life of the mortgage.

Depreciable basis = 75 percent of total cost

Depreciable life = 27.5 years (use 25% max for DEPR tax and 15% for CG tax)

Expected appreciation rate = 3% per year, compounded.

Anticipated Holding period = 5 years

The marginal tax rate of investor is 34%.

Expected Selling Expenses = 6%.

Required after-tax Return on Equity = 8%.

Calculate the NPV and IRR for the project on after-tax basis. (40%)

Calculate the following rules of thumb: Potential Gross Income Multiplier (PGIM); Capitalization Rate(R), Operating Expense Ratio (OER), Equity Dividend Rate (EDR); and Debt Coverage Ratio (DCR); and Brokers’ Rate of

Return for the project. (15%)

Based on the results on (a) and (b), above, will you recommend this project to the equity investor (your client)? Why? How about if your client were to be a mortgage lender, will you still recommend this project to your lender client? Why? (7%)

How are property managers potentially able to enhance value? (3%)

Conroy Consulting Corporation (CCC) has been growing at a rate of 14% per year in recent years. This same non-constant growth rate is expected to last for another 2 years (g0,1 = g1,2 = 14%). If D0= $1.70, rs= 9% and gL = 6%, then what is CCC's stock worth today? Round your answer to the nearest cent. Do not round your intermediate computations. $ What is its expected dividend yield at this time? Round the answer to two decimal places. Do not round your intermediate computations. % What is its capital gains yields at this time? Round the answer to two decimal places. Do not round your intermediate computations. % Now assume that CCC's period of supernormal growth is to last another 5 years rather than 2 years (g0,1 = g1,2 = g2,3 = g3,4 = g4,5 = 14%). How would this affect its price, dividend yield, and capital gains yield? I.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be lower for each year. Although the total return will remain the same, the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will differ for the duration of the supernormal growth period. II.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be higher for each year. The total return as well as the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will differ for the duration of the supernormal growth period. III.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be higher for each year. The total return as well as the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will remain the same for the duration of the supernormal growth period. IV.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be lower for each year. The total return as well as the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will differ for the duration of the supernormal growth period. V.Due to the longer period of supernormal growth, the value of the stock will be higher for each year. Although the total return will remain the same, the distribution between dividend yield and capital gains yield will differ for the duration of the supernormal growth period. What will CCC's dividend yield and capital gains yield be once its period of supernormal growth ends? (Hint: These values will be the same regardless of whether you examine the case of 2 or 5 years of supernormal growth, and the calculations are very easy.) Round the answers to two decimal places. Do not round your intermediate computations. Dividend yield % Capital gains yield % Of what interest to investors is the relationship over time between dividend yield and capital gains yield? I.It is of no interest to investors whether they receive dividend income or capital gains income, since both types of income are always taxed at the same rate. II.It is of no interest to investors whether they receive dividend income or capital gains income, since taxes on both types of income must be paid in the current year. III.It is of no interest to investors whether they receive dividend income or capital gains income, since taxes on both types of income can be delayed until the stock is sold. IV.Some investors need cash dividends, while others would prefer growth. Also, investors must pay taxes each year on the dividends received during the year, while taxes on the capital gain can be delayed until the gain is actually realized. V.Some investors need cash dividends, while others would prefer growth. Also, investors must pay taxes each year on the capital gain during the year, while taxes on the dividends can be delayed until the stock is sold.