ECO 304L Chapter Notes - Chapter Unit 2: Ch 5-8,13: Keynesian Economics, Potential Output, Business Cycle

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greenwalrus59

7 Oct 2017

School

UT-Austin

Department

Economics

Course

ECO 304L

Professor

M O S T A S H A R I, S H A L A H

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Document Summary

Demand and supply over short and long time horizons: view of conventional macroeconomic theory, the dominant view in modern macroeconomics is that keynesian demand-side effects matter in the short run, that is, over the business cycle. We will address this key question in more detail later in the course: briefly, many modern macroeconomists believe that monetary policy is important for this transition. When the economy is in recession, the fed cuts interest rates to stimulate demand until the economy again operates at potential output. If demand gets ahead of potential output, which could raise inflation, the fed raises interest rates: this idea seems simple, but the fed"s job is far from automatic. According to supply-side theory, high consumption reduces saving and therefore reduces resources available for investment. The result is lower capital and slower growth of y*: but if insufficient demand prevents the economy from actually producing at y*, low consumption can hurt the economy, causing resources to be wasted.

Related Questions

1. Which of the following shifts aggregate demand to the right?
a. Congress reduces purchases of new weapons systems.
b. US exports increase.
c. The price level falls
d. New developments in IT increase the productivity of most manufacturing industries in the US.

2. Suppose the EPA introduces new smog regulation that makes it costlier to produce cars. As a result, aggregate supply falls (primary effect) and firms cut back on production. With less output in the economy available for consumers, consumers bid up the prices of available output. With higher prices, firms choose to produce more (secondary effect).
Which of the following best explains what the net effect on GDP?
a. The two effects should essentially cancel out, with little to no effect on GDP, but the price level clearly rises.
b. It is impossible to say what happens to GDP without being able to compare the magnitudes of the two effects.
c. Real GDP rises as the secondary effect dominates the primary effect.
d. Real GDP falls since the primary effect dominates the secondary effect.

3. A Keynesian economist who observes an output gap would conclude that
a. aggregate demand should be shifted to the right.
b. a policy of deregulation would be better than demand management policy
c. aggregate supply should be shifted to the right
d. All proposed answer options are correct

4. Monetarists believe
a. the Aggregate Supply curve is upward-sloping (but not vertical) over all time frames.
b. the Aggregate Supply curve can be treated as horizontal in the long run (over 10 years
c. the Aggregate Supply curve is vertical only in the very long run (over 20 years).
d. the Aggregate Supply curve can be treated as vertical in the short-to-medium run (1-2 years)

5. Suppose the price of oil increases due to conflict in the Middle East. How will this be illustrated in the AD-AS model?
a. The aggregate demand curve will shift to the left
b. The aggregate supply curve will shift to the left.
c. The aggregate demand curve will shift to the right
d. The aggregate supply curve will shift to the right

6. Assume a Keynesian AS curve. In the short run, when there is a large output gap
a. contractionary demand management policy is likely to be highly inflationary
b. expansionary demand management policy does not cause much inflation.
c. expansionary demand management policy is likely to be highly inflationary
d. the government should use contractionary demand management policy

7. As a result of Bush tax cuts that partially expired in January 2013, the marginal tax rates for some households increased and these households paid higher taxes. Which of the following would be the best description of the tax cut expiration?
a. Rightward shift in AS
b. Rightward shift in AD
c. Leftward shift in AD
d. Leftward shift in AS

8. Suppose that the U.S. government increases income taxes on individuals earning more than $500,000/year and uses the revenue from this tax increase to subsidize the cost of energy for businesses. How will this policy change affect the U.S. economy?
a. The effect on output is ambiguous but price level will decrease for sure
b. The effect on both output and price level is ambiguous.
c. The effect on price level is ambiguous but output will increase for sure
d. The effect on price level is ambiguous but output will decrease for sure

9. If Australia, which imports goods from the United States, went into recession, we would expect that U.S. net exports would
a. rise, making aggregate demand shift right.
b. rise, making aggregate demand shift left
c. fall, making aggregate demand shift left
d. fall, making aggregate demand shift right

10. Suppose that Greece decides to exit the European Union and the Euro Zone, causing a boost in business confidence in European markets. How would you illustrate the primary effect of Greeceâs decision in the AD-AS model for the EU economy?

Note: for this question, assume that Y in the AD-AS model represents output (GDP) of EU member countries without Greece.
a. a shift in the aggregate supply curve to the left and a shift in the aggregate demand curve to the left
b. a shift in the aggregate demand curve to the right
c. a shift in the aggregate demand curve to the left
d. movement along the aggregate demand curve to the left

11. The Austrian school of thought believes that demand management policy should not be used because
a. big government prefers deregulation, which shifts aggregate supply
b. the economy is always at full employment
c. shifting AD to the right is likely to cause deflation
d. big government has a bias towards inflationary policy

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1. Fiscal policy attempts to affect the level of overall spendingin the economy by changes in:
A) the interest rate.
B) the money supply.
C) banking regulations.
D) taxes and spending.

2. Economists have identified several consecutive months of fallingemployment and forecasts for the next few months are for more ofthe same. At what point in the business cycle is the economyapparently located?
A) recession
B) expansion
C) business cycle peak
D) business cycle trough

3. The onset of the Great Depression:
A) was not a shock to anyone since most economists predicted theâroaring 20sâ were bound to end in disaster.
B) created a disagreement between the Hoover administration andconventional economists because Hoover wanted the government tointervene much more quickly than most others.
C) came as a considerable shock to the conventional wisdom ofeconomics at that time and opened the door for critiques ofmainstream thought by economists like JM Keynes.
D) was in 1918 at the end of World War I.

4. When economists measure economic growth, they often use:
A) the inflation rate.
B) the unemployment rate.
C) nominal GDP.
D) real GDP.

5. In a typical business cycle, the business cycle peak isimmediately followed by the:
A) recession.
B) business cycle trough.
C) expansion.
D) depression.

6. Suppose an economy experiences rising total output accompaniedby increasing employment, this is generally known as:
A) stagflation.
B) recession.
C) inflation.
D) expansion.

7. Controlling interest rates is an example of:
A) fiscal policy.
B) tax policy.
C) monetary policy.
D) exchange rate policy.

8. The alternation between recessions and expansions is known asthe:
A) unemployment rate.
B) long-run economic growth.
C) business cycle.
D) macroeconomy.

9. A recession in America is typically associated with:
A) a falling unemployment rate.
B) a decrease in the number of people living in poverty.
C) a decrease in the percentage of Americans with healthinsurance.
D) an increase in corporate profits.

10. The purpose of macroeconomic policy is to:
A) bring unemployment closer to the natural rate.
B) reduce the severity of recessions.
C) rein in excessively strong expansions.
D) bring unemployment closer to the natural rate and to reduce theseverity of recessions.

11. The trade balance is the difference between the value ofthe:
A) trade deficit and the budget deficit.
B) goods and services that one country sells to other countries andthe value of the goods and services it buys in return.
C) exchange rates of two countries that are engaged ininternational trade.
D) national debt and the foreign debt.

12. Increasing the total amount of available productive resourcesis the focus of __________.
A) macroeconomics
B) fiscal policy
C) monetary policy
D) microeconomics

13. The point on a business cycle when real GDP stops rising andbegins falling is a(n):
A) peak.
B) trough.
C) expansion.
D) recession.

14. During a recession, one will often observe:
A) aggregate output rising.
B) unemployment rates will be increasing while aggregate output isfalling.
C) employment rates will be rising.
D) zero unemployment rates.

15. Monetary policy involves:
A) changes in government spending.
B) changes in government tax receipts.
C) changes in the quantity of money.
D) changes in tax rates.

16. The trough of the business cycle:
A) comes right after the expansion phase.
B) comes before the recession phase.
C) is a temporary maximum level of real GDP.
D) is a temporary minimum level of real GDP.

17. Which one of the following statements about the U.S. economy isnot accurate?
A) Since the Second World War, aggregate output grew at a ratelower than the average annual growth rate of population.
B) Since the Second World War, aggregate output grew at a ratehigher than the average annual growth rate of population.
C) Since the Second World War, macroeconomic policy has helped makethe economy more stable.
D) Long-run growth per capita is the key to higher wages and arising standard of living.

18. An economic recovery is all of the following except:
A) economic growth of a sustained nature.
B) a short-run increase in aggregate production in aneconomy.
C) a time of increasing employment.
D) the end of the business cycle.

19. Which of the following would NOT be classified as amacroeconomic question?
A) How many people are employed in the economy as a whole?
B) What determines the overall level of prices in the economy as awhole?
C) What determines the overall trade in goods, services, andfinancial assets between the United States and the rest of theworld?
D) What determines the cost to a university or college of offeringa new course?

20. Which of the following statements regarding price level orinflation is correct?
A) Supply and demand can not explain why a particular good orservice becomes more expensive relative to other goods andservices.
B) Inflation affects only the more advanced countries whereas lessadvanced countries face deflation.
C) Prices of most goods and services remained stable during thegreat depression.
D) In general, when the economy is in recession and jobs are hardto find, inflation tends to fall.

21. If wages grew at a 5% rate last year and average prices grew ata 3% rate, then the average worker is:
A) better off.
B) worse off.
C) no better or worse off.
D) unaffected.

22. In an open economy:
A) the exchange rate is determined by the government.
B) specialization in activities with a comparative advantage is notpossible.
C) trade is only beneficial to the relatively larger economy.
D) there is trade in goods, services, or assets with othercountries.

23. Changes in government spending and taxes in an effort to changeoverall spending in an economy is:
A) fiscal policy.
B) monetary policy.
C) investment.
D) the stock market.

24. If an economy is open, this means that:
A) anyone can immigrate to the country.
B) trading with other countries makes up a portion of itseconomy.
C) it does not trade with other countries.
D) it will experience a drop in its real GDP.

25. Inflation is a situation where:
A) the average price level falls.
B) the average price level increases.
C) the average price level becomes negative.
D) the real price level falls.

26. The topics studied in macroeconomics include:
A) the price of a motorcycle.
B) the wages of engineers.
C) the average price level in the economy.
D) how much ice cream consumers buy.

27. A period of rising real GDP is a(n):
A) peak.
B) trough.
C) expansion.
D) recession.

28. The modern tools of macroeconomic policy are:
A) tax policy and antitrust policy.
B) fiscal policy and monetary policy.
C) monetary policy and exchange rate policy.
D) capital policy and labor policy.

29. A ârubber neckingâ traffic jam is an example of:
A) microeconomics in action.
B) individual behavior that has a large aggregate impact.
C) the paradox of thrift.
D) an outcome smaller than the sum of its parts.

30. The most painful consequence of a recession is:
A) rising unemployment.
B) increasing inflation.
C) increasing aggregate output.
D) higher interest rates.

31. Per capita economic growth is:
A) economic growth per unit of capital.
B) economic growth per person.
C) economic expansion over the business cycle.
D) sustained increase in aggregate output.

32. Keynesian economics stressed:
A) total spending.
B) the self-regulating power of free markets.
C) the long run.
D) that the Depression should run its course to bring down the highcost of living.

33. When an economy's overall production grows faster than itspopulation, this is referred to as:
A) long-run growth per capita.
B) an increase in nominal GDP.
C) deflation.
D) the paradox of thrift.

34. Fiscal policy attempts to affect the overall level of spendingin the economy through:
A) changes in the inflation rate.
B) changes in the quantity of money or the interest rate.
C) changes in tax policy or government spending.
D) discretionary regulation of profits and wages.

35. With regard to the aggregate price level, economists generallybelieve:
A) price stability is a desirable goal.
B) inflation is worse than deflation.
C) deflation is worse than inflation.
D) inflation actually benefits most retired people.

36. Recessions are periods when:
A) output rises.
B) the aggregate price level rises.
C) the unemployment rate is falling.
D) output and employment are falling.

37. Monetary policy attempts to affect the overall level ofspending in the economy by changes in:
A) taxes.
B) taxes and spending.
C) taxes and interest rates.
D) interest rates and the quantity of money.

38. The basic difference between an economic recession and economicdepression is that:
A) the latter is a shorter economic downturn than the former.
B) during recessions output falls faster than duringdepressions.
C) during depressions employment falls faster than duringrecessions.
D) the former is a longer economic downturn than the latter.

39. The central mission of modern macroeconomics is to prevent_____ from happening again.
A) recessions
B) inflation
C) deflation
D) anything like the Great Depression

40. Fiscal policy refers to:
A) the control of interest rates.
B) the control of government spending and taxations.
C) the control of the quantity of money.
D) the control of interest rates and of government spending.

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1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory.

Niall Ferguson believed that expansionary fiscal policy could produce a crowding-out effect. Ferguson believed that if the government tried to increase demand during the crisis it would cause the real interest rate to increase. He theorized that if the government tried to boost the economy through deficit spending it would cause the interest rate to rise, which in turn would crowd-out investors and consumers. The interest in the deficit would lead to an increase in the demand for loanable funds, which would lead to an increase in interest rates. Ferguson stated "The lesson of economic growth is very clear. Economic growth does not come from state-led infrastructure investment. It comes from technological innovation, and gains in productivity, and these things come from private sector, not from the state."

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Paul Krugman disagreed with Ferguson and believed that the government deficit could not produce a crowding out effect. Krugman's liquidity trap: Private demand is so low that even if the short-term interest rate is 0% spending is less that what is needed for full employment. Normal monetary policy of the central bank purchasing short-term debts with new money is ineffective. Krugman argues that a major issue during the crisis was people wanting to save money combined with the private sector being far less likely to invest. He referred to this a "savings glut". It was argued that the federal reserve was playing the part that the private banking system through buying private securities and the federal government was playing the roll that business wasn't by engaging in investment. Due to the liquidity trap excess demand for savings is not going to drive interest rates up. Krugman stated " Government borrowing gives some of those excess saving a place to go and in the process expands overall demand, and hence GDP. It does not crowd out private spending, at least not until the excess supply of savings has been sopped up, which is the same thing as saying not until the economy has escaped from the liquidity trap."

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

I agree with Soros view that the publics view of the financial markets has been forever changed. " Financial markets namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. But the finical system collapsed of its own weight." I feel like this is a situation in which it takes a very long time to build trust, but that trust can be lost instantly. The crash has challenged the felling of security that people once felt in the banking system. The idea of the market regulating itself is fading, it wasn't until the government stepped that people felt reassured in the banking system. I believe this will lead to a period of government regulation that wouldn't have arose without this change in view. I disagree with robin Wells' view that the US needs to shift towards protectionism. I believe that free trade is good for everyone as long as there is a comparative advantage. If the US moves toward protections as a result of the deficit it will slow economic growth and place us at a disadvantage compared to countries with free trade. Not to mention consumers in the US will be placed with the burden of higher prices on goods.

Please make comments to the discussion I provided above(at least 300 words). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

ECO 304L Chapter Notes - Chapter Unit 2: Ch 5-8,13: Keynesian Economics, Potential Output, Business Cycle

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