ECON20001 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Deflation, Nominal Interest Rate, Output Gap

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27 Jul 2018
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I(cid:373)pa(cid:272)t effe(cid:272)ts (cid:272)ould (cid:271)e fo(cid:396) eithe(cid:396) dad/das (cid:272)u(cid:396)(cid:448)e o(cid:374)l(cid:455) (cid:272)ha(cid:374)ges to affect both: d(cid:455)(cid:374)a(cid:373)i(cid:272) effe(cid:272)ts te(cid:374)d to (cid:271)e fo(cid:396) das (cid:272)u(cid:396)(cid:448)e has i(cid:374) e(cid:395)uatio(cid:374) Larger inflation gap reduces output: das does(cid:374)"t ha(cid:448)e * (cid:374)ot affected (cid:4666) (cid:4667) is i(cid:374)flatio(cid:374) gap negative relation with output. Larger inflation gap tends to reduce output: highe(cid:396) i(cid:374)flatio(cid:374) (cid:396)e(cid:395)ui(cid:396)es highe(cid:396) (cid:374)o(cid:373)i(cid:374)al i(cid:374)te(cid:396)est (cid:396)ate (cid:373)o(cid:374)eta(cid:396)(cid:455) poli(cid:272)(cid:455) rule, higher interest rate lowers output. "past inflation" term in das will be smaller next period: das curve shifts down in time t+1, generates lower real interest (cid:396)ate ta(cid:455)lo(cid:396) p(cid:396)i(cid:374)(cid:272)iple, tends to increase output. Lo(cid:449)e(cid:396) i(cid:374)flatio(cid:374) si(cid:374)(cid:272)e people adjust e(cid:454)pe(cid:272)ted i(cid:374)flatio(cid:374) do(cid:449)(cid:374)(cid:449)a(cid:396)ds. Inflation decrease requires lower nominal interest (cid:396)ate (cid:373)o(cid:374)eta(cid:396)(cid:455) poli(cid:272)(cid:455) (cid:396)ule. Slope of dad curve determined by monetary policy rule: Determines the volatility of inflation and output (cid:2250)= + (cid:2250: big. Output is more volatile: big changes in y. Small changes in y: big (cid:272)ha(cid:374)ges i(cid:374) .

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