PSY 100 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Hindsight Bias, The Need, Psychological Science
Document Summary
Is psychology just intuition: when making a choice dollar in the envelope demo. Los angeles: clearly we cannot simply rely on common sense and intuition, hindsight bias - i knew it all along! *, good ideas are like good inventions; once created, they seem obvious . We often mistake familiarity for knowledge: knowing the answer tends to make us overconfident, we often mistake confidence for accuracy, perceiving order in random events. Clip: jim kelly: as humans we like to make sense of the world we live in! Order in randomness: flipping a coin. Given enough random events sometimes unusual streaks will occur. Paul the octopus world cup predictions: back masking.
