GEOLOGY 002 Lecture Notes - Lecture 28: Illusory Correlation, Spurn, Availability Heuristic
Document Summary
Availability: when estimating probability, frequency or numerosity, people rely on shortcuts or rules of thumb heuristics, availability heuristic: instances, more easily of, remembered or computed, stand out more in one"s mind. : own efforts and behaviors are more apparent and available to us then of others. Illusory correlation: conjunction fallacy: events that often occur together are estimated to be more likely/stereotypical. A roulette wheel is in fact not keeping track of the past results and correct it to get equal proportions. Random processes will not always produce results that look random: law of small numbers people expect small samples to resemble in every aspect the populations from which they are drawn. Framing effects: people evaluate outcomes as changes from a reference point/current state, looses are treated more seriously than gains of an equivalent amount. Changing description of a situation can lead us to see the same outcome differently. Initial starting point will have a huge effect on the final estimates.
