DECS-310 Lecture Notes - Lecture 24: Time Series, Exponential Smoothing, Simple Linear Regression
Document Summary
Lo3. 5- summarize forecast errors and use summaries to make decisions. Lo3. 7- use a na ve method to make a forecast. Lo3. 13- compute and use regression and correlation coefficients. Lo3. 14- construct control charts and use them to monitor forecast errors. Lo3. 16- describes the key factors and trade offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique. Forecast: forecast- a statement about the future value of a variable of interest, we make forecasts about such things as weather, demand, and resource availability, forecasts are important to making informed decisions. Two important aspects of forecasts: expected level of demand, the level of demand may be a function of some structural variation such as trend or seasonal variation, accuracy, related to the potential size of forecast error. Inventory management: workforce levels, purchasing, production, budgeting, scheduling, techniques assume some underlying causal system that existed in the past.
