EARTHSS 17 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Continental Drift, The Mantle, Oceanic Crust

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Describe the relationship between frequency and magnitude of natural hazards/ catastrophes. Calculate the recurrence interval of various events. More people enjoy riding snowmobiles and skiing in the backcountry leading to an increase of fatalities. Forecasts: probability that natural event of particular magnitude will happen within recurrence interval or frequency, on average. Not no a certain date or at a certain time. Chance of 50-year flood is 1 in 50, every year, even if 50-year flood occurred last year. Think about events like earthquakes that happen every 15 years. Disaster forecast: recurrence interval (t): statistical average number of years between events of a certain magnitude -- based on the historical record. 1/t: chance of an event of a certain magnitude per year; expressed in % Rank recurrence interval (t) (t=n/m) annual chance (1/t. # of years in record (n) = 2003 -1995 = 1 (fence post) = 9. 60 eruptions in the past 500 years.

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