POL SCI 40 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Missile Gap, Make America Great Again
Document Summary
Stability (predictability) v. persuasion (messages, campaigns, field work) Turnout and nominations will be disscused in a few weeks. ** this isn"t about your income it"s about the state of the nation"s economy: candidates (constraints, all candidates come with strengths and weaknesses. All candidates come with constraints (young and inexperienced, old and ideas are tired etc. : their opponents constraints are going to be featured in the campaign. Two inexperienced politicans won"t bring up that the other person is inexperienced because so are you. You don"t have to be the prettiest just prettier than the person next to you: messages (persuasion & activation, what messages do candidates present. Incumbent parties in growing economies typically win elections. Obama was the incumbent so hillary would be part of incumbent parties. Use gdp change to predict in advance. Use the pattern to predict the outcome of a future election. As growth rate increases the incumbents party of two person vote increases.
