MGMT6058 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Longest Path Problem, Critical Path Method, Statistical Dispersion
Document Summary
When we calculate the critical path, we have been using a fixed estimate (e. g. te from pert) for the duration of the activities. In reality, there is statistical variability of each activity, which we see when we used o, m, and. And the actual durations of the project are frequently different than our original estimates. Because of these factors, what was a shorter path (not critical) can become a critical path because some of the activities were longer than our original fixed estimate. We"ll use a project with a simple aon diagram to demonstrate critical path merge bias. A single start activity s, then 3 parallel activities (a,b,c) and a single finish activity f. activity a is on the critical path. But if we drew the o to p range (using 6 std dev) of activity a, b & c, it would look like this.
