CGS NS 202 Study Guide - Final Guide: Norman Borlaug, One-Child Policy, Social Trap
16 May 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
• Paul Ehrlich—Lessons for handling Population Bomb (video)
o Re Engineer entire energy system, and water infrastructure
o Can’t predict what’s going to happenà when or how long and how big the consequences are going to be
o Food supply growing slower than rate of population
o India for example will not be able to feed itself
• We’re all going to starve
o Norman Borlaugà created a new strain of wheat that was 4x more productive that wheat had ever been before
o Took it to India and India had enough to feed themselves even export it
o Solved problem that Ehrlich was writing about
o Food supply propelled past the population growth. Green revolution solved the population bombà saved billion
lives
• Survivorship
o 3 types
o Type 1- humans (high survivorship to low as you get older)
o 2: squirrel
o 3. Clams? Oysters? (low survivorship to high as you get older)
• Period prior to Economic Development
o Population are limited by low food availability
o Death rates are high
o Birth rates are high
o Over long periods of timeà zero population growth
• Mortality Transition
o Improved economic conditions
o More food, better living conditions, health care and education
o Birth rate stays highà pop. increased
o Poorer countries in Africa
• Fertility Transition
o Continued economic development
o Social and cultural changes lead to lower birth rates
o Death rate remains low
o Birth rate decreases
o Many of the worlds countries, including US
• Stability transition
o Low birth and death rate
o Birth rate=death rateà zero population
o Decline in population may occur
o Japan and some western countries
• Overpopulation in China
o 1949 Mao encourages high birth rate
▪ Initial high fertility period: 6 children
▪ Great leap forward: 3.3 children due to high death rate and famine
▪ Post famine: 7.4 children
▪ Rapid fertility decline: 2.8 children
▪ One child policy: negative population growth
• Although birth rates below replacement levels, population still increasing?
o Time lag: until low birth rate cohort reaches reproductive age
• Social Traps and Environmental Policy
o Social trap is any situation in which the short run, local reinforces guiding individual behavior are inconsistent
with the long-run, best interest of the individual and society
o Cigarette smoking short run your cool and accepted by others, long run earlier death or cancer
o Very difficult to change after you take the road that has the “Signs”
o We become addicted to our habits and way of life. Difficult to change even when you realize that change will be
better for the long run.
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Green revolution solved the population bomb saved billion lives: survivorship. 3 types: type 1- humans (high survivorship to low as you get older) Improved economic conditions: more food, better living conditions, health care and education, birth rate stays high pop. increased, poorer countries in africa. Fertility transition: continued economic development, social and cultural changes lead to lower birth rates, death rate remains low, birth rate decreases, many of the worlds countries, including us, stability transition. Low birth and death rate: birth rate=death rate zero population, decline in population may occur. Japan and some western countries: overpopulation in china.
