BA 30310 Study Guide - Quiz Guide: Digital Photography, Punctuated Equilibrium, Mobile Computing
Foresight Quiz #1 Study Guide
• Wild Cards (a/k/a Black Swans):
o Events that have a LOW PROBABILITY of occurring, but a HIGH IMPACT if they do
occur
▪ Event is UNEXPECTED, but has SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
• Summary of Patterns of Change:
o Change:
▪ Comes at different rates (continuous or discontinuous) or over different
periods of time (short or long)
▪ Resulting in a succession of eras (S-Curves, punctuated equilibrium, and
paradigm shifts)
▪ Sometimes causing creative destruction
▪ Yet, presenting both opportunity and risk
Questions to Consider:
• Why do market leaders sometimes get caught off guard?
o Think about the example in which Microsoft did not foresee the profit potential
of Search and Mobile computing
▪ deciding too late to enter the game
o Think about the example in which Kodak underestimated the potential of digital
photography
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