BA 30310 Quiz: Foresight Quiz 2 Part 7
Foresight Quiz #2
● Expected, Alternative, and Preferred Future Scenarios: PART OF TREND ANALYSIS
o Expected Scenario:
▪ what is going to happen?
▪ Speed – Trajectory – Impact
o Alternative Future Scenario:
▪ comes from plausible assumptions
● any possible disruption on the baseline forecast that will lead to
an alternative scenario
▪ What might happen instead?
o Preferred Future Scenario:
▪ what you want to happen
● falls within the limit of plausibility
▪ What do you want to happen?
● Three Basic Forces of Change and Analysis – Getting the Level of Complexity Right:
o Forces include:
▪ 1. Trends:
● can be analyzed according to speed, trajectory, and impact
▪ 2. Events:
● UNCERTAINTY
● can be analyzed according to likelihood and impact
▪ 3. Issues:
● UNCERTAINTY
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Document Summary
Expected, alternative, and preferred future scenarios: part of trend analysis: expected scenario, what is going to happen, speed trajectory impact, alternative future scenario: comes from plausible assumptions. Three basic forces of change and analysis getting the level of complexity right: forces include, 1. Can be analyzed according to speed, trajectory, and impact: 2. Can be analyzed according to likelihood and impact: 3. Can be analyzed according to likelihood and impact. Validity (internal): directionally correct, do not have to have a scientifically evidenced framework, but rather just one that gives us a framework for thinking. Internal validity: indicators are measuring what we need to measure information comes from reliable sources. Causes and effects are accurately measures and confidence exists that this relationship is not driven by extraneous factors. Iv and dv are accurately measured: confidence exists in cause and effect relationships and are.
