MAN 336 Study Guide - Midterm Guide: Availability Heuristic, Omission Bias, Representativeness Heuristic
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Escalation of commitment: the tendency for people to continue to support previously unsuccessful courses of action because they have sunk costs invested in them. In these ki(cid:374)ds of situatio(cid:374)s, such as guessi(cid:374)g so(cid:373)eo(cid:374)e"s career path, (cid:449)e ofte(cid:374) do(cid:374)"t ha(cid:448)e e(cid:374)ough i(cid:374)for(cid:373)atio(cid:374) to (cid:373)ake accurate judgments. As a result, our estimations of probabilities are distorted and base rates are often ignored: conjunction. Carter racing case study: in summary, the initial graphs can be misleading, but if you look at all the data in one graph, it becomes very clear that you should not race. There is a very significant relationship between temperature and engine failure. The colder it gets, the more likely an engine failure will result. You have to look very closely at the data. You have to be careful to not develop a theory and look for data that confirms that theory.
