ENVM3115 Lecture 7: ENVM3115 WEEK 7
1 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Planning for climate change
What is adaptation?
What is Adaptation? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2008):
Anticipatory (proactive) adaptation:
- pre-emptive
- weighs up vulnerability of natural & anthropogenic systems; costs & benefits of
action vs inaction
Planned adaptation:
- result of a deliberate policy decision,
- based on awareness that conditions have changed/about to change o
- action is required to achieve a desired state.
Reactive adaptation:
- takes place after impacts of climate change
- E.g. new building regulations follow a severe bushfire event.
Autonomous (spontaneous) adaptation:
- triggered by ecological changes in natural systems, market or welfare changes
Targeting adaptive action
1. Assessing the climate change risks
2. Assessing vulnerability to those risks
I. Exposure of asset to risk
II. Sensitivity of asset to risk
III. Adaptive capacity of asset
3. Agreeing on desired outcomes from managing the risks
4. Identifying, evaluating & choosing adaptive actions (strategic choice)
5. Implementation
6. Monitoring, evaluating efficiency of actions & effectiveness in achieving outcomes &
adjusting actions & outcomes (adaptive planning cycle)
Evaluation in strategic choice
Which option (action) is best? Consider, for example
• Cost or cost/benefit
• Feasibility
• Acceptability to stakeholder
Evaluation in planning efficiency & effectiveness
Efficiency - Were the actions in the plan implemented (did we do things right)?
• Which actions were implemented, to what extent – fully, in part or not at all?
• What were the reasons for less than full implementation?
• What was the direct & indirect cost?
Effectiveness - How much has the condition of the asset improved towards the desired
outcome (did we do the right things)?
The costs of adjustment
• Calculating the cost of climate change o
- Type 1 - measured market impacts of climate change
- Type 2 - market impacts for which effects cannot be measured with sufficient
precision & confidence
- Type 3 - impacts that turn out to be substantially more severe
- Type 4 - services that Australians value, but which do not derive their value through
market processes
Sharing the cost of adjustment
Socializing costs – government, insurance & diminished assets
Privatizing costs – individuals, enterprises & insurance
Anticipating change
• Recognize potential challenged
• Connect the dots of incipient trends by triangulating weak signals
• Entertain multiple hypotheses causes of change
• Encourage mavericks to say what they really think
• Look for game changing information at the periphery of the industry sector or
community
• Search beyond the boundaries of current, prevailing views
• Build wide networks inside & outside the industry sector or community
• Remain vigilant & curious about signals from many spheres
International planning
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science & Adaptation Planning Program (2011-2015)
• Aid program – invest $1 billion in climate finance 2015-2020 to:
- Reduce emissions
- Build resilience in developing countries
- Disaster support
• East Timor Climate Science Program (2011-2013)
• Pacific adaptation assistance program (2008-2012)
European Climate Change Programme –
• EU adaptation strategy
• Began April 2013
• Promotes greater coordination & information-sharing between Member States
• Ensures adaptation considerations are in all relevant EU policies, e.g.:
- Using water more efficiently –
- Adapting building codes to future climate conditions –
- Building flood defences –
- Developing drought-tolerant crops –
- Set aside land corridors to help species migrate
Small Island Developing States
Small island developing States are particularly vulnerable to climate change, climate
variability & sea-level rise.
“38 SIDS have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Due
to their status, as Least Developed Countries (LDCs), 11 SIDS have also submitted National
Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA).”
Australian Government
National Climate Resilience & Adaptation Strategy
• Released December 2015
• how Australia is managing climate risks for the benefit of the community, economy &
environment.
• Identifies a set of principles to guide effective adaptation practice & resilience
building
• Outlines the Government’s vision for the future
Australian Government Disaster & Climate Resilience Reference Group
- Coast Adapt
- National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
- Adaptation Partnership
Local Government
• Systems approach to risk assessment
• Explicit adaptation actions
- ‘No regrets actions’
- ‘High value adaptations’
Document Summary
Weighs up vulnerability of natural & anthropogenic systems; costs & benefits of action vs inaction. Planned adaptation: result of a deliberate policy decision, Based on awareness that conditions have changed/about to change o action is required to achieve a desired state. Reactive adaptation: takes place after impacts of climate change. E. g. new building regulations follow a severe bushfire event. Autonomous (spontaneous) adaptation: triggered by ecological changes in natural systems, market or welfare changes. Targeting adaptive action: assessing the climate change risks, assessing vulnerability to those risks. Consider, for example: cost or cost/benefit, feasibility, acceptability to stakeholder. The costs of adjustment: calculating the cost of climate change o. Type 1 - measured market impacts of climate change. Type 2 - market impacts for which effects cannot be measured with sufficient precision & confidence. Type 3 - impacts that turn out to be substantially more severe.
