PSYC2215 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Blaise Pascal, Expected Utility Hypothesis, Utility
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2: weight the criteria - objectives might be of di erent importance, generate alternatives - identify di erent possible courses of action, rate each alternative on each criterion, compute the optimal decision. Humans are worst at weighting criteria, rating alternatives on each criterion and computing the optimal decision - so this model is not usually how humans behave. Pre-ceded this theory: blaise pascal: split decision making process into 2 segments - likelihood judgment, value judgement. He investigated whether people should lead a religious life. 2 possibilities: god exists or doesn"t (50:50 chance assumed) Bene ts/costs of leading a religious life: calculated. Expected utility = sum of probability of each outcome times utility of this outcome. Should choose the option with the highest expected utility. (often don"t follow this because of huge possibility of loss in some cases). That people are rational and are always try to maximise potential outcome. That max expected utility is always determinable.
