SPED102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Statistical Significance, Publication Bias, Design Of Experiments
2 Jun 2018
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Parapsychology - The Paranormal: The truth is out there (or only in our minds?)
Outline:
• Parapsychology and paranormal beliefs
• Who believes and what do they believe?
• Talking to the dead
• Research on paranormal phenomena
• Why scientists can be fooled
• What is the harm?
Parapsychology and Paranormal beliefs:
• Beliefs that fall well outside conventional science
• Parapsychology = scientific investigation of psi (psychic powers)
• Psi – ESP (telepathy = communicate outside normal channels, precognition =
knowing about things before they happen, clairvoyance = ability to gain
information about object/event etc. through means other than known senses)
• Talking to the dead – psychic mediumship
• Astrology/divination
Who believes?
• US Gallop Poll (2005) of 1002 adults
o 3 in 4 Americans have at least one paranormal belief
o 55% believed in psychic or spiritual healing or power of human mind
to heal body, 41% believed in extrasensory perception, 37% believes
houses are haunted etc.
• And in 2014 poll
o About 70% believe you can influence physical world by positive
thought, 60% believe dreams can tell the future etc.
o Paranormal beliefs have not changed that much
• What about Australia?
o 58% believed in psychic/spiritual healing, 35% believed in ghosts etc.
o Paranormal belief in Tasmania
▪ Approx. 40% believe paranormal phenomena are real, 23% had
psychic experience, 15% visit fortune tellers, astrologers,
psychic on regular basis
• Worldwide pattern
o Ubiquitous nature of these beliefs – all societies throughout the world
regardless of culture, gender, educational background etc.
o Believing in extraordinary phenomena may well be part of what it is to
be human?
Talking to the dead:
• Proof of existence of an after life? Or just wishful thinking
• Many are convinced that psychics like John Edward have genuine powers
• The birth of spiritualism:
o Hydesville, NY – 1848
o The Fox Sisters claimed they could hear rapping noises made by the
spirit of a dead pedlar
o Incredibly, the noises seemed to follow them around
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
• Mediumship takes off:
o Fox sisters went on tours of Europe and US (Seemingly the pedlar
went with them)
o Europe and US embraced the new ‘religion’
o In 1882, the Society for Psychical Research was set up in London (still
there are thriving – the JSPR very much alive and well)
o Psychic mediumship became hugely popular with mediums performing
all over the world
o In 1888, Margaret Fox admitted it was all fake – she made the noises
with her feet
• Modern psychics:
o Theatrical displays of the past replaced by psychic communication in a
TV studio
o John Edward, James van Praagh, Sylvia Browne
o Vulnerable individuals seeking comfort
o Probably worth billions of dollars
o Evidence that many high profile ‘psychics’ engage in some level of
deception
• Hot reading
o Hot reading = outright cheating by obtaining prior information about
sitter:
▪ Internet searchers
▪ Medium or accomplice gathers information in advance
▪ Recording is used to record information
• Warm and cold reading
o Warm reading
▪ Using common behaviours and psychological characteristics to
make educated guesses
o Cold reading
▪ Barnum statements (73% of you thought your psychic reading
was very accurate or accurate and only 9% thought it was
inaccurate or very inaccurate)
▪ Assessment of sitter (Age, dress, demeanour) to give clues
▪ Observation of sitter reactions (body language, tone of voice,
facial expression etc.) to adjust reading
▪ Fishing
▪ Turning misses into hits
▪ Disguise questions as statements ‘is this making sense to you’
o It is the client who does the reading not the psychic
How does it work?
• Personal validation
• Cognition – cognitive biases
• Memory biases – hits and misses
• Biology – personality traits, susceptibility factors
• Cultural/environmental – handed down beliefs/traditions
• Role of the media/film and TV
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Parapsychology - the paranormal: the truth is out there (or only in our minds?) How does it work: personal validation, cognition cognitive biases, memory biases hits and misses, biology personality traits, susceptibility factors, cultural/environmental handed down beliefs/traditions, role of the media/film and tv. Media: role of television and other media, psychics often portrayed as warm empathetic individuals the skeptics are cold and close-minded, rarely include informed, objective opinions (token sceptic, sheer volume creates public acceptance of validity. 2014: examined 90 replications of bem"s precognition study, small effect size (0. 09, consistent failure to replicate, evidence of publication bias, remember, 0 = no effect, all are very close to 0. Many meta-analyses, all the same: consistent failure to replicate findings, extremely small overall effects, are effects real or is background noise due to experimental error, publication bias etc. What evidence would change mark (convener"s) mind: 1. Replicable findings different researchers consistently producing similar effects (including non-believers: 2.
