GEOG20003 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Social Welfare Function, Ecological Footprint, 2Degrees
16 May 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
LECTURE 5: CLIMATE CHANGE + ENERGY
CLIMATE CHANGE
The Idea of Climate Change
Climate (OED): the average course or condition of the weather at a place usually over a period of years as exhibited by
temperature, wind + precipitation – notion of change is temporal
• Climate: offers material benefits for human cultures – weather components, as well as spiritual + aesthetic benefits
• Climatic variation: integral part of existence, can cause collapse of civilisations, acts as stimulus for innovation
• Environmental Determinism: environmental factors have critical influence on human settlements
Physical Basis of Climate Change
• Greenhouse effect: change in incoming + outgoing solar radiation – band of GHG’s
getting thicker
o Effected by land use, land use change + f.f burning = warming of oceans +
atmosphere
• First theorised in 1890’s, first observed 1980’s – steadily growing body of evidence
• Atmospheric CO2 concentrations haven’t gone over 280ppm in past 800,000 years
• Science of c.c: highly variable + unpredictable
• To stay under 2 degrees warming, ¼ of reserves can’t be exploited
IPCC: governing scientific body which produces knowledge – dominant scientific consensus on c.c
• Role: review, assess + synthesise latest info on c.c based on peer-reviewed literature + research
• Provide data to UNFCC – main international policy actor
• 2,000 scientists, working groups on: physical science basis, impacts, adaptations + vulnerability and mitigation
• Assessment Reports every 5 years, confirm anthropogenic c.c, increasing certainty over time
o Offers scenarios, currently tracking at worst case scenario, to avoid trajectory need effective mitigation
methods
Cultural Dimensions of Climate
• Scientific understandings of climate are linked to cultural understanding
• Anthropocene: cultural invention, defined as period of time where humans are the main force of global change
• Need to restabilise global climates around the range of climate variability – cultural interpretation + symbolism in what we
say + do
• C.C discourse: mediates contemporary human-environment relationships – disagreement is a result of different ideologies
rather than data
POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Progressive Economic Analysis of Climate Change
• Externally associated with GHG emissions – cost not paid by those emitting
o Different from other externalities – global, long + persistent, serious risk of
irreversible change
• Impacts broad ranging + interact with market failures = complex policy problem
• Questions of intra/intergenerational equality central
• Can’t stick to neoclassical economies – had to expand
o Traditional standard externality + cost-benefit analysis approaches
useful, but not enough
Ethics + Welfare
• Standard welfare-economic approach hard to apply as c.c effects are global, intertemporal + highly inequitable
o As well as uneven impact of emissions – double inequality in c.c
• Not one jurisdiction, decision maker or social welfare function – different countries + players interact differently
• How are consequences calculated for people in different circumstances?
Response
• Introduce a tax/price for GHG emissions to factor in externality to the market
• Forms: Carbon Tax, Emissions Trading Scheme
• Appropriate tax: be equal to social cost of carbon where it is equal to marginal abatement cost
Contraction + Convergence
• Argument: carbon emissions should be determine on an equal per capita basis
• Rich (North) countries reduce (Contract) to carbon target
• Populous counties in South increase their emissions gradually to a limited extent
• Creates convergence towards equal + low per capita allotments
• Stern: won’t have much impact on GDP which poses little threat to standard of living
Ecological Economies Analysis of Climate Change
Critique of Progressive Economic Analysis
• Unreasonable that it won’t affect growth rate: climate mitigation + adaptation costs as % of
GDP are similar to growth rate
• Reduction of economic growth/degrowth may be necessary to avoid catastrophic c.c
• Only significant economic crisis’ have had a significant impact on the trajectory of emissions
o GFC, Collapse of the Soviet Union, Oil Crises
Solution: Steady State Economy
An economic system made up of constant magnitude or non-growing stock of physical goods (non-
human capital)
• An economic system that doesn’t physically grow, but qualitatively progresses over time
Planetary Boundary Framework
Analysis turns data to risk assessment,
identifies thresholds that result us
moving out of safe operating zone
Goal: integrate continued
development of human societies +
maintenance of Earth systems
(Change in view of) Discount Rate
• Place a lower weight on future
costs + benefits than present
• Favouring projects whose costs
are in future + benefits are in
present – results in resource
exploitation
• Tool used to factor in broader
temporality of climate change
Guiding Sustainability Parameters
(to ecological economics)
• 2 degrees C above pre
industrial levels + 450ppm CO2
stabilisation
• Global ecological footprint –
no greater than Earth’s
biocapacity
• Maximum sustainable human
population
• Reduce per capita
consumption in high GDP
counties
Document Summary
Environmental determinism: environmental factors have critical influence on human settlements. Physical basis of climate change: greenhouse effect: change in incoming + outgoing solar radiation band of ghg"s getting thicker. Effected by land use, land use change + f. f burning = warming of oceans + atmosphere. First theorised in 1890"s, first observed 1980"s steadily growing body of evidence. Atmospheric co2 concentrations haven"t gone over 280ppm in past 800,000 years. To stay under 2 degrees warming, of reserves can"t be exploited. Ipcc: governing scientific body which produces knowledge dominant scientific consensus on c. c. Role: review, assess + synthesise latest info on c. c based on peer-reviewed literature + research. Provide data to unfcc main international policy actor. 2,000 scientists, working groups on: physical science basis, impacts, adaptations + vulnerability and mitigation. Assessment reports every 5 years, confirm anthropogenic c. c, increasing certainty over time. Analysis turns data to risk assessment, identifies thresholds that result us moving out of safe operating zone.
